Every game on our boards, played out 10,000 times from real play-by-play and box-score data — each snap or possession drawn for its exact situation and matchup. For each game we show one thing: the most plausible outcome of those 10,000 games, with its top performers. You can watch it play out.
Tested on games it had never seen, its average miss on the final margin is within about a point of the betting line's. Simulations are research and entertainment, not betting advice.
2 games · updated 2026-11-02 · Open the NFL simulations →
Sun 8:20 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
Most plausible outcome: Commanders 23, Eagles 16. The Commanders won 61% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field
Most plausible outcome: Seahawks 24, Bears 21. The Seahawks won 60% of 10,000 simulations.
17 games · updated 2026-11-02 · Open the NBA simulations →
Sun 8:30 PM ET · Chase Center
Most plausible outcome: Warriors 113, Clippers 101. The Warriors won 57% of 10,000 simulations.
Sun 9:00 PM ET · crypto.com Arena
Most plausible outcome: Raptors 115, Lakers 110. The Raptors won 52% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:00 PM ET · Rocket Arena
Most plausible outcome: Thunder 112, Cavaliers 106. The Thunder won 51% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:30 PM ET · Spectrum Center
Most plausible outcome: Pistons 114, Hornets 109. The Pistons won 61% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:30 PM ET · Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Most plausible outcome: Hawks 116, Pacers 107. The Hawks won 57% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:30 PM ET · Madison Square Garden
Most plausible outcome: Knicks 111, Nets 109. The Knicks won 72% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:30 PM ET · Kia Center
Most plausible outcome: Magic 121, Wizards 109. The Magic won 58% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 7:30 PM ET · Xfinity Mobile Arena
Most plausible outcome: 76ers 121, Bulls 107. The 76ers won 56% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center
Most plausible outcome: Mavericks 123, Kings 108. The Mavericks won 67% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:00 PM ET · FedExForum
Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 126, Pelicans 116. The Grizzlies won 55% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:00 PM ET · Target Center
Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 116, Bucks 107. The Timberwolves won 71% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)
Most plausible outcome: Rockets 114, Celtics 107. The Rockets won 58% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 8:30 PM ET · Frost Bank Center
Most plausible outcome: Spurs 125, Jazz 120. The Spurs won 76% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 9:00 PM ET · Ball Arena
Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 113, Nuggets 111. The Trail Blazers won 52% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 10:00 PM ET · Chase Center
Most plausible outcome: Warriors 115, Suns 110. The Warriors won 53% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 10:00 PM ET · Intuit Dome
Most plausible outcome: Raptors 113, Clippers 99. The Raptors won 64% of 10,000 simulations.
Mon 10:00 PM ET · crypto.com Arena
Most plausible outcome: Lakers 115, Heat 112. The Lakers won 54% of 10,000 simulations.
Football: every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Basketball: every possession, with each player's minutes, shot mix and percentages against this defense.
Of the 10,000 games, the one where the team that won most often wins, with the final closest to both teams' middle scores. One clear answer instead of a pile of percentages.
We test the simulator on games it never saw and publish the result. It is a model, not a prediction, and never a guarantee.