Bucks vs Timberwolves prediction
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Target Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 116, Bucks 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 71% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Ryan Rollins Bucks 21 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Myles Turner Bucks 18 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- LaMelo Ball Timberwolves 22 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Jaden McDaniels Timberwolves 20 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 33 | 26 | 18 | 30 | 107 |
| MIN | 28 | 27 | 36 | 25 | 116 |
Top scorers: LaMelo Ball 22, Ryan Rollins 21, Jaden McDaniels 20, Myles Turner 18, Tyler Herro 17, Terrence Shannon Jr. 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 26 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 25 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Myles Turner | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Herro | 22 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 5-18 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Cormac Ryan | 37 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kel'el Ware | 25 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Green | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jericho Sims | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 32 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 9-18 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 31 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Rudy Gobert | 29 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| LaMelo Ball | 27 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 7-21 | 4-14 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cody Williams | 22 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 35 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Joan Beringer | 26 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Trey Lyles | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Bucks: Ryan 30 · Herro 30 · Rollins 27 · Jaquez 27 · Ware 26 · Green 25 · Turner 24 · Kuzma 24 (projected minutes)
Timberwolves: McDaniels 31 · Dosunmu 29 · Gobert 28 · Ball 27 · Kuminga 26 · Shannon 24 · Williams 23 · Beringer 21 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Bucks get out in transition 6th-fewest in the NBA. Timberwolves allow 7th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Timberwolves turn it over on 15% of possessions (13th of 30). Bucks force turnovers on 13% (the fewest).
Second chances. Bucks grab 26% of their misses (8th-fewest). Timberwolves let opponents get 26% (6th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 27% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 27%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Ball leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 23% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 35%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 24%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 49%, up from 29%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (33% of sims), they win 45%, up from 29%.
When Timberwolves hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 85%, up from 71%.
Reality check
Bucks score 112.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.4 against this defense.
Timberwolves score 119.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.5 against this defense.
Herro: 20.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17 · 4.3 · 3.5.
Jaquez: 18.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.1 · 5.1 · 3.2.
Ball: 19.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 3.9 · 6.
McDaniels: 17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.7 · 5.1 · 3.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 71% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIN −11.5): the Timberwolves cover in 44%.
Total 233.5: over in 42%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.