Rockets vs Bucks prediction
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 116, Bucks 112.
Final: HOU 132–100. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 116, Bucks 112 (the Rockets won 59% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Amen Thompson Rockets 22 pts · 8 reb · 7 ast
- Oscar Tshiebwe Rockets 19 pts · 14 reb · 0 ast
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Bucks 23 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 22 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 25 | 29 | 23 | 39 | 116 |
| MIL | 32 | 22 | 35 | 23 | 112 |
Top scorers: Jaime Jaquez Jr. 23, Ousmane Dieng 22, Amen Thompson 22, Tyler Herro 22, Oscar Tshiebwe 19, Jabari Smith Jr. 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 38 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 8-8 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Amen Thompson | 36 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 33 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Fred VanVleet | 30 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 28 | 19 | 14 | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tari Eason | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clint Capela | 11 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dieng | 35 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 9-18 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 31 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Ryan Rollins | 30 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Green | 26 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Herro | 23 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 9-17 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jericho Sims | 29 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cormac Ryan | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 22 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 9-11 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Rockets: Thompson 37 · Durant 35 · Smith 35 · VanVleet 30 · Sheppard 25 · Eason 25 · Tshiebwe 21 · Bogdanovic 13 (projected minutes). Out: Alperen Sengun, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams
Bucks: Herro 32 · Rollins 30 · Jaquez 29 · Green 29 · Dieng 27 · Sims 27 · Kuzma 26 · Ryan 25 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Rockets finish 68% at the basket (10th-best; 29% of their shots). Bucks allow 69% there (6th-highest).
In transition. Rockets get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Bucks allow 15th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Bucks grab 26% of their misses (9th-fewest). Rockets let opponents get 27% (8th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 45% of sims.
Tshiebwe posts a double-double in 29%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 26% of sims.
Green hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 61%, up from 41%.
When Rockets hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 78%, up from 59%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Rockets (40% of sims), they win 58%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Rockets score 121.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Bucks score 111.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Durant: 25.2 pts · 6 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 5.2 · 5.6.
Thompson: 19.8 pts · 7.7 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 6.7 · 5.2.
Herro: 19.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 4.1 · 3.8.
Rollins: 18.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 3.8 · 4.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 59% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (HOU −8.5): the Rockets cover in 38%.
Total 226.5: over in 53%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Kevin Durant5+ ast66%of sims48%books imply
- Ryan Rollins16+ pts53%of sims44%books imply
- Ryan Rollins20+ pts + ast56%of sims47%books imply
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.15+ pts58%of sims50%books imply
- Ryan Rollins20+ pts + reb52%of sims46%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.