Raptors vs Lakers prediction
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · crypto.com Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 115, Lakers 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 52% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Scottie Barnes Raptors 20 pts · 2 reb · 5 ast
- Collin Murray-Boyles Raptors 14 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Luka Doncic Lakers 23 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Walker Kessler Lakers 21 pts · 11 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 30 | 24 | 25 | 36 | 115 |
| LAL | 34 | 36 | 22 | 18 | 110 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 23, Walker Kessler 21, Scottie Barnes 20, Austin Reaves 14, Collin Murray-Boyles 14, RJ Barrett 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 29 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Scottie Barnes | 24 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 9-15 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 22 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Smith | 14 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 26 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamal Shead | 22 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Allen Graves | 21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alijah Martin | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jamison Battle | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 10 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LaRavia | 37 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Luka Doncic | 34 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 8-17 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Austin Reaves | 34 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Walker Kessler | 34 | 21 | 11 | 0 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Lawson Lovering | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Collin Sexton | 23 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 22 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Quentin Grimes | 21 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaden Hardy | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Raptors: Barrett 30 · Barnes 29 · Smith 27 · Walter 26 · Quickley 26 · Shead 25 · Murray-Boyles 21 · Anderson 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard, Jakob Poeltl
Lakers: Doncic 34 · Reaves 33 · Kessler 29 · Grimes 28 · LaRavia 26 · Mamukelashvili 26 · Lovering 24 · Sexton 23 (projected minutes). Out: Ziaire Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Lakers turn it over on 15% of possessions (6th-most). Raptors force turnovers on 16% (the most).
In transition. Raptors get out in transition the most in the NBA. Lakers allow 9th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Raptors grab 28% of their misses (10th-most). Lakers let opponents get 28% (4th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 45% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 17%.
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 73% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 25%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 34%.
What swings it
When Lakers commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (31% of sims), they win 69%, up from 48%.
When Lakers hit 14+ threes (31% of sims), they win 68%, up from 48%.
When Raptors hit 13+ threes (33% of sims), they win 70%, up from 52%.
Reality check
Raptors score 118.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.7 against this defense.
Lakers score 115.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.9 against this defense.
Barrett: 20.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.4 · 5.1 · 2.9.
Barnes: 18.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 6.2 · 4.9.
Doncic: 37 pts · 6.3 reb · 7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 29.5 · 5.3 · 5.5.
Reaves: 22.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 3.2 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 52% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Collin Sexton11+ pts62%of sims43%books imply
- Collin Sexton10+ pts + reb80%of sims62%books imply
- Collin Sexton3+ reb50%of sims32%books imply
- Collin Sexton10+ pts + ast77%of sims62%books imply
- Sandro Mamukelashvili2+ ast63%of sims48%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.