Chiefs vs Broncos prediction
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Chiefs 27, Broncos 16.
Final: DEN 28–24. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Chiefs 27, Broncos 16 (the Chiefs won 60% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Chiefs won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 226 pass yds · 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker III Chiefs 91 rush yds · 1 TD
- Travis Kelce Chiefs 8 rec · 84 yds
- Bo Nix Broncos 203 pass yds · 1 TD
- J.K. Dobbins Broncos 63 rush yds · 1 TD
- Courtland Sutton Broncos 4 rec · 59 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stKC 39-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stKC Walker 20-yd TD run 10–0
- 2ndDEN 32-yd field goal 10–3
- 2ndKC Mahomes to Worthy, 23-yd TD 17–3
- 2ndDEN Nix to Sutton, 3-yd TD 17–9
- 3rdKC 50-yd field goal 20–9
- 3rdDEN Dobbins 1-yd TD run 20–16
- 4thKC Johnson 1-yd TD run 27–16
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/31 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 24 | 91 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmett Johnson | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 16 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 16 |
| Emmett Johnson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 24 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 23 |
| Rashee Rice | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
| Andrew Armstrong | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 17/30 | 203 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 16 | 63 | 1 |
| Jonah Coleman | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 | 23 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 27 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Wind: 13 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.
Who's in the sim
Chiefs: QB Mahomes · Kelce 19% of targets · Worthy 18% of targets · Rice 18% of targets · Walker 71% of carries. Back: Rice (missed 2 of 6)
Broncos: QB Nix · Waddle 25% of targets · Sutton 21% of targets · Engram 13% of targets · Dobbins 47% of carries. Back: Coleman (missed 4 of 7). Out: RJ Harvey
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
The pass rush. Broncos take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest). Chiefs get home on 6% (4th-fewest), blitzing on 33% of dropbacks.
On the ground. Broncos average 4.0 yards a carry (9th-worst). Chiefs allow 3.8 (3rd-fewest).
Through the air. Chiefs complete −0.6 pts more passes than expected (20th of 32). Broncos allow −2.9 pts vs expected (2nd-least generous).
Mahomes vs the blitz: 7.1 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Broncos blitz on 33% of dropbacks (8th-most).
Mahomes's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.79 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Walker to the left: 6.1 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Broncos give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.
Kelce draws 19% of the Chiefs targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Nix vs the blitz: 5.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chiefs blitz on 33% of dropbacks (9th-most).
Nix's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.92 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Dobbins to the right: 3.6 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Chiefs give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
4th downs: Broncos go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.
Waddle draws 25% of the Broncos targets and averages 3.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Kelce leads the Chiefs in receiving yards in 32% of sims.
Mahomes throws for 300+ in 11%.
Walker runs for 100+ in 41%.
Walker scores a touchdown in 66%, the likeliest on his team.
Waddle leads the Broncos in receiving yards in 46% of sims.
Nix throws for 300+ in 9%.
Dobbins runs for 100+ in 5%.
Waddle scores a touchdown in 30%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Broncos run for 120+ yards (31% of sims), they win 71%, up from 39%.
When Chiefs run for 160+ yards (31% of sims), they win 91%, up from 60%.
When Walker runs for 130+ (23% of sims), they win 92%, up from 60%.
Reality check
Chiefs score 23.8 a game (last 6). In the sims: 23.2 against this defense.
Broncos score 20.6 a game (last 7). In the sims: 19.3 against this defense.
Mahomes: 245.7 pass yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 221.
Rice: 4.3 catches, 63.3 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 3.5, 44.
Walker: 116.8 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 95.
Nix: 176.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 205.
Waddle: 3.7 catches, 39.7 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.8, 59.
Coleman: 46.5 rush yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 36.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Chiefs win 60% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −1.5): the Broncos cover in 37%.
Total 41.5: over in 51%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.