Thunder vs Mavericks prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 115, Mavericks 107.
Final: DAL 120–96. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 115, Mavericks 107 (the Thunder won 70% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 70% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 38 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Jared McCain Thunder 15 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- P.J. Washington Mavericks 19 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 18 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 29 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 115 |
| DAL | 30 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 107 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 38, P.J. Washington 19, Cooper Flagg 18, Daniel Gafford 16, Jared McCain 15, Kenrich Williams 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 44 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 11-25 | 4-8 | 12-12 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 30 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 5-8 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Jared McCain | 28 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Micah Peavy | 26 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 24 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Dix | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Aday Mara | 22 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenrich Williams | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaylin Williams | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 33 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 8-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Max Christie | 28 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyrie Irving | 28 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cooper Flagg | 21 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 18 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Moussa Cisse | 33 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Naji Marshall | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 40 · Mitchell 29 · Dix 27 · Hartenstein 26 · Peavy 22 · McCain 22 · Williams 20 · Mara 18 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso
Mavericks: Washington 33 · Flagg 31 · Marshall 30 · Christie 28 · Irving 27 · Gafford 22 · Clayton 22 · Risacher 21 (projected minutes). Out: Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 14% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Mavericks force turnovers on 14% (9th-fewest).
At the rim. Mavericks finish 67% at the basket (17th of 30; 28% of their shots). Thunder allow 62% there (the lowest).
In transition. Mavericks get out in transition 14th of 30 in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 88% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 33%.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 48% of sims.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (29% of sims), they win 50%, up from 30%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (25% of sims), they win 48%, up from 30%.
When Thunder hit 12+ threes (36% of sims), they win 83%, up from 70%.
Reality check
Thunder score 118.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.9 against this defense.
Mavericks score 116.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.5 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 35.7 · 4.1 · 5.9.
Mitchell: 11.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 3.4 · 4.5.
Flagg: 25.4 pts · 6.4 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 5.5 · 5.
Irving: 19 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 3. In the sims: 14.3 · 3.1 · 2.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 70% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (OKC −4.5): the Thunder cover in 60%.
Total 228.5: over in 43%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander35+ pts52%of sims41%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander40+ pts + ast56%of sims47%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander45+ pts + reb + ast52%of sims46%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander35+ pts + reb66%of sims60%books imply
- Ajay Mitchell4+ ast66%of sims61%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.