Cavaliers vs Hawks prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, Thursday, October 29, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 120, Hawks 116.
Final: ATL 114–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cavaliers 120, Hawks 116 (the Cavaliers won 54% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Peyton Watson Cavaliers 19 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 16 pts · 6 reb · 7 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 21 pts · 10 reb · 9 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 21 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 20 | 33 | 41 | 26 | 120 |
| ATL | 32 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 116 |
Top scorers: Jalen Johnson 21, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21, Peyton Watson 19, Evan Mobley 16, Dyson Daniels 16, Donovan Mitchell 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 35 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 35 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 7-13 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Mobley | 29 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrett Allen | 29 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Peyton Watson | 26 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 8-13 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sam Merrill | 27 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 24 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Mario Hezonja | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Bryant | 15 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyson Daniels | 40 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 38 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 6-18 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Johnson | 31 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ McCollum | 29 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 24 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 26 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jalen Wilson | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jock Landale | 19 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 104).
Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Harden 34 · Mitchell 33 · Mobley 31 · Watson 27 · Merrill 27 · Allen 26 · Tyson 21 · Hezonja 18 (projected minutes). Out: Meleek Thomas
Hawks: Johnson 34 · Alexander-Walker 33 · Daniels 31 · Okongwu 31 · McCollum 28 · Wilson 23 · Landale 21 · Flemings 20 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Cavaliers allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Hawks finish 66% at the basket (20th of 30; 30% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (3rd-lowest).
Ball security. Cavaliers turn it over on 15% of possessions (15th of 30). Hawks force turnovers on 16% (2nd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 42% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 35%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 33% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 49%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Hawks hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 65%, up from 46%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (34% of sims), they win 70%, up from 54%.
When Cavaliers hit 14+ threes (39% of sims), they win 69%, up from 54%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 122.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.8 against this defense.
Hawks score 120.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Mitchell: 26.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21 · 4.6 · 5.3.
Mobley: 18.3 pts · 9.8 reb · 3.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.7 · 8.9 · 3.1.
Alexander-Walker: 22.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 3.3 · 3.1.
Johnson: 19.3 pts · 10.1 reb · 7.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 9.4 · 6.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 54% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Sam Merrill2+ ast73%of sims56%books imply
- Jaylon Tyson3+ ast56%of sims41%books imply
- Jock Landale2+ ast62%of sims54%books imply
- Sam Merrill3+ reb55%of sims46%books imply
- Jaylon Tyson10+ pts + ast73%of sims66%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.