Ravens vs Bills prediction
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Highmark Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Bills 27, Ravens 24.
Final: BUF 36–10. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Bills 27, Ravens 24 (the Bills won 55% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Bills won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Tyler Huntley Ravens 178 pass yds · 1 TD
- Derrick Henry Ravens 77 rush yds · 1 TD
- Ja'Kobi Lane Ravens 3 rec · 60 yds
- Josh Allen Bills 135 pass yds · 2 TD
- James Cook Bills 95 rush yds
- Dalton Kincaid Bills 6 rec · 65 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stBAL 59-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stBAL Huntley to Andrews, 19-yd TD 10–0
- 2ndBUF 29-yd field goal 10–3
- 2ndBAL Huntley 19-yd TD run 17–3
- 2ndBUF Allen to Shakir, 2-yd TD 17–10
- 3rdBUF Allen to Coleman, 15-yd TD 17–17
- 4thBUF to Moore, 18-yd TD 17–24
- 4thBAL Henry 2-yd TD run 24–24
- 4thBUF 20-yd field goal 24–27
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 16/24 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 77 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 29 |
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 21 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 19 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Josh Cuevas | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12/19 | 135 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 16 | 95 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 17 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 21 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 15 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 15 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Ravens start Tyler Huntley, who took 37% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.
Who's in the sim
Ravens: QB Huntley · Flowers 27% of targets · Andrews 18% of targets · Bateman 11% of targets · Henry 69% of carries. Out: Lamar Jackson
Bills: QB Allen · Shakir 19% of targets · Kincaid 16% of targets · Moore 16% of targets · Cook 63% of carries. Back: Moore (missed 2 of 6)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
On the ground. Ravens average 4.7 yards a carry (2nd-best). Bills allow 4.2 (11th of 32).
Through the air. Bills complete +2.4 pts more passes than expected (2nd-best). Ravens allow +0.5 pts vs expected (12th of 32 generous).
Takeaways. Ravens throw an interception on 2% of passes (7th-fewest). Bills pick off 2% (12th of 32).
Huntley vs the blitz: 6.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bills blitz on 33% of dropbacks (11th of 32).
Huntley's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.80 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Henry to the right: 4.5 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Bills give up −0.0 yards a carry on that side.
Flowers draws 27% of the Ravens targets and averages 3.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Allen vs the blitz: 7.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Ravens blitz on 31% of dropbacks (15th of 32).
Allen's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.92 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Cook to the left: 5.4 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Ravens give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Shakir draws 19% of the Bills targets and averages 3.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flowers leads the Ravens in receiving yards in 59% of sims.
Huntley throws for 300+ in 11%.
Henry runs for 100+ in 32%.
Henry scores a touchdown in 56%, the likeliest on his team.
Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards in 27% of sims.
Allen throws for 300+ in 15%.
Cook runs for 100+ in 36%.
Cook scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Ravens run for 160+ yards (29% of sims), they win 77%, up from 43%.
When Henry runs for 110+ (26% of sims), they win 76%, up from 43%.
When Bills run for 170+ yards (28% of sims), they win 86%, up from 55%.
Reality check
Ravens score 24.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 23.7 against this defense.
Bills score 32.8 a game (last 6). In the sims: 25.6 against this defense.
Huntley: 181.8 pass yds a game (last 4). In the sims: 218.
Flowers: 6.3 catches, 106.6 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 5.4, 72.
Henry: 88.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 84.
Allen: 252.3 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 228.
Moore: 4 catches, 59.3 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 2.8, 39.
Cook: 89.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 89.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Bills win 55% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (BUF −3): the Bills cover in 47%.
Total 54.5: over in 34%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.