Knicks vs 76ers prediction
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 115, 76ers 113.
Final: PHI 98–93. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Knicks 115, 76ers 113 (the Knicks won 57% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 21 pts · 16 reb · 4 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 20 pts · 4 reb · 7 ast
- Joel Embiid 76ers 27 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 21 pts · 2 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 34 | 26 | 22 | 33 | 115 |
| PHI | 33 | 19 | 33 | 28 | 113 |
Top scorers: Joel Embiid 27, Karl-Anthony Towns 21, Tyrese Maxey 21, Jalen Brunson 20, Rayan Rupert 15, OG Anunoby 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 38 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 8-23 | 0-6 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| OG Anunoby | 36 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Josh Hart | 32 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mikal Bridges | 30 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 22 | 21 | 16 | 4 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Miles McBride | 26 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-9 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Landry Shamet | 22 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Drummond | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kolek | 11 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 38 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 8-14 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 34 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joel Embiid | 34 | 27 | 8 | 5 | 10-24 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| LeBron James | 31 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Dean Wade | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 34 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 25 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 24 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3-14 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Knicks: Brunson 35 · Anunoby 33 · Hart 31 · Towns 31 · Bridges 30 · Shamet 23 · McBride 18 · Drummond 17 (projected minutes). Out: Jose Alvarado
76ers: Maxey 36 · Edgecombe 35 · Embiid 34 · Rupert 32 · James 32 · Simons 26 · Caldwell-Pope 25 · Wade 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jaylen Brown, Dominick Barlow
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. 76ers grab 25% of their misses (3rd-fewest). Knicks let opponents get 25% (the fewest).
At the rim. 76ers finish 64% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Knicks allow 65% there (6th-lowest).
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 14% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Knicks force turnovers on 14% (8th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 56% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 63%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Embiid leads the 76ers in scoring in 38% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 41%.
Simons hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 63%, up from 43%.
When Knicks hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 75%, up from 57%.
When Knicks commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (33% of sims), they win 74%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Knicks score 110.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.6 against this defense.
76ers score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.6 against this defense.
Brunson: 25 pts · 2.8 reb · 7.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.9 · 2.9 · 6.2.
Towns: 19.8 pts · 11.9 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 12.3 · 3.2.
Embiid: 26.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.5 · 9.1 · 3.5.
Maxey: 25.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 3.9 · 4.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.