Kings vs Mavericks prediction
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, Monday, November 2, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Mavericks 123, Kings 108.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Mavericks won 67% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 21 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Nique Clifford Kings 15 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 26 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- P.J. Washington Mavericks 18 pts · 6 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 25 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 108 |
| DAL | 32 | 32 | 33 | 26 | 123 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 26, Darius Acuff Jr. 21, P.J. Washington 18, Kyrie Irving 17, Nique Clifford 15, Domantas Sabonis 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 40 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 7-20 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 40 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 27 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach LaVine | 26 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2-16 | 1-9 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 26 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nique Clifford | 25 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 22 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leaky Black | 20 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Monk | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 33 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 9-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Max Christie | 32 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 31 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper Flagg | 25 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 10-17 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 20 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 29 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Naji Marshall | 24 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 14 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 12 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Kings: Acuff 34 · Sabonis 30 · LaVine 28 · Achiuwa 28 · Plowden 25 · Black 24 · Hunter 24 · Clifford 24 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 29 · Marshall 28 · Irving 27 · Risacher 25 · Christie 25 · Clayton 22 · Gafford 22 (projected minutes). Out: Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Kings take 36% of their shots from deep (the fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Mavericks give up 40% of shots from three (3rd-fewest).
At the rim. Mavericks finish 67% at the basket (15th of 30; 28% of their shots). Kings allow 71% there (2nd-highest).
Ball security. Kings turn it over on 15% of possessions (15th of 30). Mavericks force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 52% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 58%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 16%.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 51% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 20%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 49%, up from 33%.
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (33% of sims), they win 83%, up from 67%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Kings (42% of sims), they win 81%, up from 67%.
Reality check
Kings score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.4 against this defense.
Mavericks score 114.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.8 against this defense.
Acuff: 26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 24.2 · 3.4 · 4.7.
LaVine: 19.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.5 · 2.5 · 2.4.
Flagg: 27.3 pts · 7 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.9 · 6 · 5.6.
Irving: 21.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 17.4 · 2.9 · 3.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Mavericks win 67% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DAL −9.5): the Mavericks cover in 46%.
Total 234.5: over in 45%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.