Wizards vs Magic prediction
Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Kia Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Magic 121, Wizards 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Magic won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Kyshawn George Wizards 25 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Will Riley Wizards 20 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Franz Wagner Magic 24 pts · 8 reb · 6 ast
- Desmond Bane Magic 22 pts · 1 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 109 |
| ORL | 35 | 23 | 33 | 30 | 121 |
Top scorers: Kyshawn George 25, Franz Wagner 24, Desmond Bane 22, Will Riley 20, Wendell Carter Jr. 14, Anthony Davis 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 30 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 30 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyshawn George | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 11-15 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Trae Young | 27 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Riley | 32 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 8-14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 28 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | 27 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Anthony Gill | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 37 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Franz Wagner | 32 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 9-22 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Anthony Black | 30 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Desmond Bane | 27 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 8-12 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jase Richardson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 27 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jevon Carter | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Cain | 21 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Goga Bitadze | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Morales | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Riley 33 · Davis 31 · Young 28 · Dybantsa 27 · Gill 26 · George 25 · Coulibaly 23 · Carrington 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Magic: Bane 30 · Carter 29 · da Silva 28 · Wagner 27 · Black 22 · Carter 21 · Cain 20 · Bitadze 17 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Wizards take 40% of their shots from deep (8th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Magic give up 40% of shots from three (4th-fewest).
At the rim. Wizards finish 69% at the basket (2nd-best; 28% of their shots). Magic allow 67% there (11th of 30).
Second chances. Wizards grab 25% of their misses (the fewest). Magic let opponents get 27% (13th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 36% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 44%.
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 35% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 23%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 12+ threes (33% of sims), they win 59%, up from 42%.
When Magic hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 77%, up from 58%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Magic (44% of sims), they win 57%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Wizards score 111.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Magic score 114.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.5 against this defense.
Davis: 20.6 pts · 9.5 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 9.6 · 1.7.
Dybantsa: 18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast over his last 2. In the sims: 14.5 · 5.2 · 1.
Wagner: 17.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 4.5 · 4.5.
Bane: 17.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 4 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Magic win 58% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (ORL −2.5): the Magic cover in 53%.
Total 224.5: over in 56%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.