Pacers vs Heat prediction
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 119, Pacers 115.
Final: MIA 145–125. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Heat 119, Pacers 115 (the Heat won 61% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 28 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Nembhard Pacers 21 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 34 pts · 11 reb · 3 ast
- Bam Adebayo Heat 15 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 24 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 115 |
| MIA | 34 | 34 | 18 | 33 | 119 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 34, Pascal Siakam 28, Andrew Nembhard 21, Aaron Nesmith 18, Quenton Jackson 16, Bam Adebayo 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarace Walker | 36 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 27 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 8-11 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 26 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pascal Siakam | 24 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 10-19 | 5-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 20 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobe Brown | 39 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jay Huff | 19 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Quenton Jackson | 18 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Slawson | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Braden Smith | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 40 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Bam Adebayo | 38 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 32 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 11-15 | 2-5 | 10-12 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Portis | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 26 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Klay Thompson | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Richards | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Pacers: Siakam 31 · Nembhard 31 · Nesmith 27 · Oubre 26 · Walker 25 · Brown 23 · Jackson 23 · Huff 20 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Obi Toppin
Heat: Adebayo 33 · Mitchell 32 · Larsson 31 · Antetokounmpo 29 · Wiggins 28 · Portis 25 · Hardaway 22 · Richards 20 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Heat turn it over on 14% of possessions (5th-fewest). Pacers force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Second chances. Pacers grab 25% of their misses (the fewest). Heat let opponents get 27% (10th-fewest).
From three. Heat take 41% of their shots from deep (18th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Pacers give up 39% of shots from three (the fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 58% of sims.
Nembhard posts a double-double in 30%.
Nesmith hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 61% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 43%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 60%, up from 39%.
When Heat hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 79%, up from 61%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than Heat (37% of sims), they win 55%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Pacers score 117.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.6 against this defense.
Heat score 121.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.5 against this defense.
Siakam: 23.9 pts · 7.2 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.7 · 7.3 · 3.3.
Nembhard: 15.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.3 · 2.5 · 8.5.
Antetokounmpo: 26.2 pts · 10 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.7 · 9.2 · 4.6.
Adebayo: 17.8 pts · 9.5 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 8.7 · 4.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Heat win 61% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIA −8.5): the Heat cover in 42%.
Total 237.5: over in 38%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Quenton Jackson5+ pts87%of sims68%books imply
- Quenton Jackson4+ ast62%of sims45%books imply
- Bam Adebayo4+ ast68%of sims53%books imply
- Bobby Portis15+ pts + ast55%of sims41%books imply
- Bobby Portis20+ pts + reb + ast66%of sims54%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.