Bulls vs 76ers prediction
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 76ers 121, Bulls 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 76ers won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Caleb Wilson Bulls 25 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 16 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 30 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 20 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 13 | 30 | 27 | 37 | 107 |
| PHI | 18 | 31 | 39 | 33 | 121 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 30, Caleb Wilson 25, Jaylen Brown 20, VJ Edgecombe 20, Joel Embiid 18, LeBron James 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 32 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 9-21 | 2-7 | 5-8 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Josh Giddey | 31 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Norman Powell | 31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matas Buzelis | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen Smith | 16 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Leonard Miller | 32 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Patrick Williams | 24 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre Jones | 24 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaac Okoro | 17 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Collins | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | 34 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 9-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LeBron James | 34 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | 32 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 7-13 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 31 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 11-20 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown | 30 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Anfernee Simons | 42 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 26 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Dean Wade | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Bulls: Wilson 32 · Miller 30 · Williams 29 · Giddey 28 · Powell 26 · Buzelis 26 · Smith 23 · Jones 21 (projected minutes). Out: Nic Claxton
76ers: Simons 36 · Maxey 34 · Brown 34 · Edgecombe 34 · Embiid 32 · Rupert 31 · James 30 · Wade 10 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 14% of possessions (the fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
At the rim. 76ers finish 65% at the basket (3rd-worst; 32% of their shots). Bulls allow 66% there (7th-lowest).
In transition. Bulls get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. 76ers allow 10th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 38% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 33%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 33% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 37%.
Simons hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (26% of sims), they win 65%, up from 44%.
When Bulls hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 63%, up from 44%.
When 76ers hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 75%, up from 56%.
Reality check
Bulls score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.9 against this defense.
76ers score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.3 against this defense.
Wilson: 21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 19.9 · 6.5 · 1.9.
Powell: 18.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 2.6 · 1.5.
Maxey: 26.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.1 · 3.9 · 4.2.
Brown: 25.1 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 5.9 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 76ers win 56% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (PHI −11.5): the 76ers cover in 30%.
Total 238.5: over in 32%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.