Pelicans vs Grizzlies prediction
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, Monday, November 2, 2026 · FedExForum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 126, Pelicans 116.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Dejounte Murray Pelicans 24 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Derik Queen Pelicans 19 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 22 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast
- Cedric Coward Grizzlies 20 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 33 | 25 | 32 | 26 | 116 |
| MEM | 30 | 27 | 34 | 35 | 126 |
Top scorers: Dejounte Murray 24, Ty Jerome 22, Cedric Coward 20, Derik Queen 19, Zach Edey 17, Zion Williamson 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 31 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dejounte Murray | 31 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Zion Williamson | 30 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Reese | 30 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 20 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 36 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 8-15 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 28 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Trendon Watford | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 34 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ty Jerome | 31 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 10-22 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cedric Coward | 28 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 8-12 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wells | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Zach Edey | 20 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Javon Small | 27 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jerami Grant | 23 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| GG Jackson | 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cam Spencer | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Pelicans: Murphy 32 · Queen 32 · Fears 30 · Williamson 29 · Murray 29 · Bey 27 · Reese 27 · Mathurin 24 (projected minutes). Out: Yves Missi, Jordan Poole
Grizzlies: Boozer 29 · Spencer 26 · Grant 26 · Jerome 26 · Coward 25 · Wells 24 · Small 23 · Edey 23 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Grizzlies get out in transition 9th-most in the NBA. Pelicans allow 3rd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Grizzlies take 43% of their shots from deep (10th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Pelicans give up 44% of shots from three (6th-most).
Ball security. Pelicans turn it over on 15% of possessions (10th-most). Grizzlies force turnovers on 15% (10th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 26% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 32%.
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 38% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 33%.
What swings it
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (43% of sims), they win 60%, up from 45%.
When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 74%, up from 55%.
When Pelicans hit 10+ threes (35% of sims), they win 61%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Pelicans score 117.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Grizzlies score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.2 against this defense.
Fears: 21.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 4.1 · 3.6.
Williamson: 19.2 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 4 · 2.5.
Jerome: 22.3 pts · 3 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 2.6 · 4.8.
Boozer: 17.3 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 15.9 · 8.5 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 55% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MEM −6.5): the Grizzlies cover in 40%.
Total 235.5: over in 46%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.