How to read a matchup
The colored number is the opponent's defense rank against that stat for the player's position (pass D for receivers/QBs, run D for backs). #1 = the NFL's best defense at stopping it — the hardest matchup, shown red. #32 = the worst — the easiest, shown green; yellow is middle-of-the-pack.
Hard#1–8Avg#9–16Good#17–24Easy#25–32
Our Rating (0–100)
Our model's estimate of the probability this exact line hits. It starts from the trend's own hit rate, shrunk toward the league average by sample size — a 100% over 6 games is treated far more cautiously than a proven rate over 18 — then adjusts on the betting-odds scale for the opponent's defense, the team's Vegas implied total and the player's home/away split, minus a wind/rain penalty on passing & receiving. Higher = more likely to hit. The shrinkage is calibrated on our own graded Track Record (a 100% trend on fewer than 10 games has historically hit only ~55%; on 15+ games, ~91%).
This rolls with time
Hit rates use last season + this season combined (every game weighted equally), so the rate, the “test any line” tool and the season chip all read from the same games. Defense ranks weight this season ~3× heavier to reflect current form. Each refresh re-pulls games, betting lines, injuries and weather, so everything shifts as the year plays out. Team marks are color badges, not official logos. Historical base rates & context, not predictions. Not betting advice.
Common questions
Is Backed By Stats really free?
Yes. The NFL prop boards, hit rates, matchup ratings, game simulations and Track Record are all free to use. There is no paywall, no premium tier and no credit card.
Do I need to sign up or make an account?
No. Everything works the moment the page opens, with no account and no email. The only sign-up on the site is an optional newsletter. Sending a slip to Playbook happens on X, so that one optional step uses your X account.
What is a prop hit rate?
The share of games a player has cleared a line. We use alternate lines the way sportsbooks post them, keep the ones cleared in at least 80% of games across last season and this season, and show the sample beside every number.
What does Our Rating mean?
Our estimate of the probability the line hits, from 0 to 100: the hit rate, pulled toward the league average when the sample is small, then adjusted for the opponent's defense, the Vegas total and more. The NFL and NBA methodology pages show the details.
What does defense vs position mean?
How much of a stat each defense gives up to a position, ranked across the league. Our free tables cover the NFL and the NBA; #1 is the toughest matchup.
How often is the data updated?
Several times a day. Injuries, rosters, sportsbook prices and game lines refresh automatically, and anyone ruled out comes off the board.
All questions
