Pistons vs Hornets prediction
Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Spectrum Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 114, Hornets 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 20 pts · 2 reb · 7 ast
- Duncan Robinson Pistons 18 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Dennis Schroder Hornets 18 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
- Coby White Hornets 17 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 26 | 34 | 36 | 18 | 114 |
| CHA | 23 | 18 | 31 | 37 | 109 |
Top scorers: Cade Cunningham 20, Duncan Robinson 18, Dennis Schroder 18, Royce O'Neale 17, Coby White 17, John Collins 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Harkless | 26 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Duncan Robinson | 26 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cade Cunningham | 25 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 10-15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Ausar Thompson | 24 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| John Collins | 21 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | 35 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Huerter | 27 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 24 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Reed | 16 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ronald Holland II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 31 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3-14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Dennis Schroder | 28 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Moussa Diabate | 26 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Naz Reid | 23 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sion James | 22 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Coby White | 27 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 5-8 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Royce O'Neale | 26 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grayson Allen | 19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Pistons: Prince 28 · Jenkins 28 · Cunningham 27 · Robinson 26 · Harkless 26 · Thompson 25 · Huerter 24 · Collins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
Hornets: Miller 31 · Allen 27 · Diabate 27 · Reid 26 · Schroder 26 · James 22 · White 21 · O'Neale 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Grant Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 16% of possessions (2nd-most). Pistons force turnovers on 16% (2nd-most).
From three. Hornets take 48% of their shots from deep (the most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Pistons give up 43% of shots from three (7th-most).
In transition. Hornets get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Pistons allow 20th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 33% of sims.
Cunningham posts a double-double in 18%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 49% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 16%.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 22%.
What swings it
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 62%, up from 39%.
When Pistons hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 79%, up from 61%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Pistons (27% of sims), they win 58%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Pistons score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.2 against this defense.
Hornets score 106.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 106.8 against this defense.
Cunningham: 18.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 8.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 4.9 · 6.4.
Robinson: 16.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.9 · 2.1 · 2.
Miller: 21.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 4.4 · 2.6.
White: 16.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.3 · 3.1 · 2.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 61% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DET −4.5): the Pistons cover in 50%.
Total 209.5: over in 67%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.