Nets vs Knicks prediction
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Madison Square Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 111, Nets 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 72% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 28 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast
- Nolan Traore Nets 18 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 20 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- OG Anunoby Knicks 17 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 28 | 30 | 25 | 26 | 109 |
| NY | 29 | 28 | 32 | 22 | 111 |
Top scorers: Michael Porter Jr. 28, Jalen Brunson 20, Nolan Traore 18, OG Anunoby 17, Karl-Anthony Towns 14, Mikel Brown Jr. 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 41 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3-14 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 33 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 10-24 | 4-12 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nolan Traore | 22 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Danny Wolf | 18 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Powell | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Minott | 30 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 24 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Ben Saraf | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keon Ellis | 19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby | 37 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hart | 32 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Jalen Brunson | 31 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 28 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 6-13 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Mikal Bridges | 23 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Landry Shamet | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles McBride | 21 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Kolek | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Drummond | 13 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Nets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 31 · Saraf 29 · Porter 28 · Brown 26 · Powell 23 · Minott 23 · Traore 20 · Wolf 20 (projected minutes). Out: Egor Demin
Knicks: Brunson 33 · Anunoby 31 · Towns 30 · Hart 29 · Bridges 28 · Shamet 26 · McBride 20 · Drummond 19 (projected minutes). Out: Jose Alvarado
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Nets finish 64% at the basket (the worst; 30% of their shots). Knicks allow 65% there (6th-lowest).
Second chances. Nets grab 26% of their misses (7th-fewest). Knicks let opponents get 25% (the fewest).
From three. Nets take 45% of their shots from deep (6th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 34% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 19%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 52% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 60%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 44%, up from 28%.
When Knicks hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 88%, up from 72%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (41% of sims), they win 41%, up from 28%.
Reality check
Nets score 105.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 106 against this defense.
Knicks score 108.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Porter: 21.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18 · 6.6 · 1.3.
Randle: 21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 6 · 3.7.
Brunson: 24.8 pts · 3 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.4 · 2.9 · 6.2.
Towns: 20.6 pts · 12.7 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 11.6 · 3.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 72% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NY −14.5): the Knicks cover in 40%.
Total 222.5: over in 49%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.