Jazz vs Spurs prediction
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 125, Jazz 120.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 76% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Lauri Markkanen Jazz 32 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Kyle Filipowski Jazz 16 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 29 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Keldon Johnson Spurs 19 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 32 | 29 | 35 | 24 | 120 |
| SA | 30 | 21 | 37 | 37 | 125 |
Top scorers: Lauri Markkanen 32, Victor Wembanyama 29, Keldon Johnson 19, De'Aaron Fox 16, Kyle Filipowski 16, Keyonte George 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 40 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 12-24 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ace Bailey | 37 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 28 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keyonte George | 23 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 19 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 8-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 31 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Collier | 22 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 16 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Bamba | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 32 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Castle | 31 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 30 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 6-15 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 10-17 | 1-6 | 8-8 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Dylan Harper | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Champagnie | 32 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Kornet | 21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Jazz: Bailey 29 · Peterson 28 · George 27 · Hayes 27 · Markkanen 26 · Collier 24 · Sensabaugh 24 · Filipowski 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Spurs: Fox 30 · Vassell 30 · Castle 29 · Wembanyama 29 · Johnson 28 · Harper 27 · Champagnie 26 · Kornet 21 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 14% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Jazz force turnovers on 14% (5th-fewest).
In transition. Spurs get out in transition 7th-most in the NBA. Jazz allow 4th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Spurs finish 67% at the basket (11th of 30; 32% of their shots). Jazz allow 71% there (the highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 25% of sims.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 62% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 53%.
Wembanyama hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 14+ threes (31% of sims), they win 42%, up from 24%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (33% of sims), they win 39%, up from 24%.
When Spurs hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 89%, up from 76%.
Reality check
Jazz score 115.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.2 against this defense.
Spurs score 121.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 122.6 against this defense.
George: 22 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 2.5 · 5.3.
Markkanen: 20.1 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16 · 5.2 · 1.5.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 12.4 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.9 · 10.4 · 2.7.
Fox: 17.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 3.8 · 5.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 76% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (SA −15.5): the Spurs cover in 41%.
Total 230.5: over in 56%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.