Raptors vs Clippers prediction
Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Intuit Dome. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 113, Clippers 99.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Scottie Barnes Raptors 20 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 16 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Keaton Wagler Clippers 20 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast
- Darius Garland Clippers 17 pts · 0 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 30 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 113 |
| LAC | 25 | 19 | 30 | 25 | 99 |
Top scorers: Keaton Wagler 20, Scottie Barnes 20, Darius Garland 17, Ja'Kobe Walter 16, RJ Barrett 16, Allen Graves 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 32 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Scottie Barnes | 31 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 7-18 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 28 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 18 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Smith | 18 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Allen Graves | 27 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Shead | 23 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4-10 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 23 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Anderson | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamison Battle | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alijah Martin | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Darius Garland | 28 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 7-17 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 21 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Rui Hachimura | 20 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brook Lopez | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Keaton Wagler | 28 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 10-16 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 26 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kobe Sanders | 22 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baba Miller | 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Pickett | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Gradey Dick | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Wesley | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Martinelli | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Raptors: Barrett 30 · Barnes 29 · Smith 27 · Walter 26 · Quickley 26 · Shead 25 · Murray-Boyles 21 · Anderson 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard, Jakob Poeltl
Clippers: Garland 29 · Wagler 28 · Hachimura 26 · Dunn 25 · Jones 24 · Lopez 24 · Jackson 21 · Sanders 20 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Bradley Beal
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Clippers turn it over on 16% of possessions (the most). Raptors force turnovers on 16% (the most).
In transition. Clippers get out in transition 8th-fewest in the NBA. Raptors allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Raptors take 37% of their shots from deep (4th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Clippers give up 41% of shots from three (9th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 46% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 19%.
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 41% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (23% of sims), they win 59%, up from 36%.
When Clippers hit 14+ threes (38% of sims), they win 56%, up from 36%.
When Raptors hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 80%, up from 64%.
Reality check
Raptors score 118.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.3 against this defense.
Clippers score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.6 against this defense.
Barrett: 20.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.4 · 5.4 · 2.8.
Barnes: 18.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 6.5 · 4.8.
Garland: 18.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.3 · 1.9 · 5.
Wagler: 14.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 16.4 · 4.6 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.