Titans vs Bengals prediction
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Paycor Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Bengals 24, Titans 20.
Final: CIN 43–36. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Bengals 24, Titans 20 (the Bengals won 63% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Bengals won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cam Ward Titans 154 pass yds · 1 TD
- Tony Pollard Titans 74 rush yds · 1 TD
- Wan'Dale Robinson Titans 7 rec · 70 yds
- Joe Burrow Bengals 287 pass yds · 1 TD
- Chase Brown Bengals 89 rush yds · 1 TD
- Ja'Marr Chase Bengals 5 rec · 79 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stCIN Brown 15-yd TD run 0–7
- 1stTEN Ward to Helm, 14-yd TD 7–7
- 1stCIN Burrow to Gesicki, 11-yd TD 7–14
- 2ndCIN 47-yd field goal 7–17
- 3rdTEN Pollard 5-yd TD run 14–17
- 3rdTEN 27-yd field goal 17–17
- 4thTEN 35-yd field goal 20–17
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 15/27 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 21 | 74 | 1 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nicholas Singleton | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 | 15 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 22 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 14 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Chimere Dike | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/33 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 15 | 89 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 30 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 21 |
| Chase Brown | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 14 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 11 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
The breakdown
The setup
Titans blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest in the NFL).
Bengals blitz on 22% of dropbacks (the fewest in the NFL).
Bengals use play action on 18% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest).
Who's in the sim
Titans: QB Ward · Robinson 30% of targets · Ayomanor 20% of targets · Helm 14% of targets · Pollard 77% of carries. Out: Carnell Tate, Tyjae Spears
Bengals: QB Burrow · Chase 24% of targets · Higgins 22% of targets · Brown 15% of targets · Brown 56% of carries
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. Bengals complete +2.0 pts more passes than expected (4th-best). Titans allow +3.0 pts vs expected (2nd-most generous).
The pass rush. Titans take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (21st of 32). Bengals get home on 7% (5th-most), blitzing on 22% of dropbacks.
On the ground. Titans average 4.1 yards a carry (19th of 32). Bengals allow 4.6 (2nd-most).
Ward vs the blitz: 4.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bengals blitz on 22% of dropbacks (the fewest).
Ward's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.93 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Pollard to the right: 4.7 yards a carry there (37% of his runs), and Bengals give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.
Robinson draws 30% of the Titans targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Burrow vs the blitz: 6.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Titans blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).
Burrow's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.68 seconds on average, scrambles on 3.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Brown to the left: 3.9 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Titans give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.
Chase draws 24% of the Bengals targets and averages 3.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Robinson leads the Titans in receiving yards in 49% of sims.
Ward throws for 300+ in 6%.
Pollard runs for 100+ in 41%.
Pollard scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.
Higgins leads the Bengals in receiving yards in 44% of sims.
Burrow throws for 300+ in 27%.
Brown runs for 100+ in 12%.
Brown scores a touchdown in 44%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Titans run for 150+ yards (28% of sims), they win 71%, up from 36%.
When Pollard runs for 120+ (27% of sims), they win 70%, up from 36%.
When Bengals run for 130+ yards (28% of sims), they win 92%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Titans score 15.4 a game (last 7). In the sims: 19.8 against this defense.
Bengals score 27.2 a game (last 6). In the sims: 24.5 against this defense.
Ward: 153.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 196.
Robinson: 4.1 catches, 29.3 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 5.6, 61.
Pollard: 65.8 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 95.
Burrow: 274.2 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 254.
Higgins: 5.4 catches, 87.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.9, 73.
Brown: 57.2 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 56.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Bengals win 63% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (CIN −13.5): the Bengals cover in 28%.
Total 45.5: over in 45%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.