Colts vs Jaguars prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stIND Taylor 14-yd TD run 6–0
2. 1stIND 36-yd field goal 9–0
3. 2ndIND Jones to Downs, 18-yd TD 16–0
4. 2ndJAX 41-yd field goal 16–3
5. 2ndJAX 45-yd field goal 16–6
6. 3rdJAX Lawrence to Abdullah, 15-yd TD 16–13
7. 3rdJAX 29-yd field goal 16–16
8. 4thJAX Lawrence to Strange, 8-yd TD 16–23
9. 4thJAX 64-yd field goal 16–26

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Wind: 13 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.

   Colts use play action on 27% of dropbacks (5th-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Colts: QB Jones · Warren 20% of targets · Allen 20% of targets · Downs 18% of targets · Taylor 65% of carries. Back: Warren (missed 2 of 7)

   Jaguars: QB Lawrence · Washington 22% of targets · Meyers 17% of targets · Strange 16% of targets · Tuten 53% of carries

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Takeaways. Colts throw an interception on 3% of passes (4th-most). Jaguars pick off 3% (the most).

   After the catch. Jaguars gain +0.1 yards after the catch vs expected (8th-best). Colts allow +0.1 (6th-worst tackling).

   The pass rush. Colts take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (16th of 32). Jaguars get home on 6% (2nd-fewest), blitzing on 31% of dropbacks.

   Jones vs the blitz: 5.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Jaguars blitz on 31% of dropbacks (14th of 32).

   Jones's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Taylor to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Jaguars give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Warren draws 20% of the Colts targets and averages 3.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Lawrence vs the blitz: 7.1 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Colts blitz on 28% of dropbacks (9th-fewest).

   Lawrence's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.79 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Tuten to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Colts give up +0.5 yards a carry on that side.

   Washington draws 22% of the Jaguars targets and averages 2.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Warren leads the Colts in receiving yards in 31% of sims.

   Jones throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Taylor runs for 100+ in 16%.

   Taylor scores a touchdown in 41%, the likeliest on his team.

   Washington leads the Jaguars in receiving yards in 40% of sims.

   Lawrence throws for 300+ in 22%.

   Tuten runs for 100+ in 18%.

   Tuten scores a touchdown in 45%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Colts run for 120+ yards (28% of sims), they win 61%, up from 27%.

   When Taylor runs for 80+ (27% of sims), they win 58%, up from 27%.

   When Jaguars run for 160+ yards (28% of sims), they win 95%, up from 72%.

7. Reality check

   Colts score 22 a game (last 7). In the sims: 17.7 against this defense.

   Jaguars score 25.7 a game (last 6). In the sims: 26 against this defense.

   Jones: 199.7 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 205.

   Downs: 3.8 catches, 44.5 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 3.6, 36.

   Taylor: 76.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 61.

   Lawrence: 249.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 245.

   Washington: 4.9 catches, 77.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4, 61.

   Tuten: 58.7 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 66.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Jaguars win 72% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (JAX −10): the Jaguars cover in 44%.

   Total 45.5: over in 43%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.