Thunder vs Rockets prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 108, Rockets 103.
Final: HOU 119–98. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 108, Rockets 103 (the Thunder won 53% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 34 pts · 4 reb · 6 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 13 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 21 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 27 | 29 | 19 | 33 | 108 |
| HOU | 21 | 31 | 28 | 23 | 103 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 34, Kevin Durant 21, Alperen Sengun 16, Ajay Mitchell 13, Isaiah Hartenstein 12, Jared McCain 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 34 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 12-27 | 3-10 | 7-10 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 27 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 23 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared McCain | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Micah Peavy | 13 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Dix | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Williams | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenrich Williams | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Ochai Agbaji | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 17 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 13 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 38 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kevin Durant | 32 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Alperen Sengun | 30 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 29 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Marcus Smart | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Tari Eason | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 18 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Clint Capela | 17 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 31 · Mitchell 26 · Dix 25 · Hartenstein 22 · McCain 21 · Peavy 20 · Agbaji 19 · Williams 18 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso
Rockets: Thompson 34 · Durant 34 · Smith 32 · Sengun 30 · Eason 27 · Smart 26 · Tshiebwe 22 · Bogdanovic 15 (projected minutes). Out: Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Rockets get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Rockets turn it over on 15% of possessions (10th-most). Thunder force turnovers on 15% (4th-most).
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Thunder let opponents get 27% (15th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 78% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 21%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 36% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 25%.
Smith hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (29% of sims), they win 67%, up from 47%.
When Rockets hit 12+ threes (26% of sims), they win 67%, up from 47%.
When Thunder hit 12+ threes (37% of sims), they win 69%, up from 53%.
Reality check
Thunder score 116.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Rockets score 122.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.2 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.1 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 28.7 · 3.7 · 4.9.
Mitchell: 13.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 2.9 · 3.9.
Durant: 25.1 pts · 6 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.1 · 4.9 · 5.1.
Sengun: 21.4 pts · 8.8 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 7.1 · 5.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Kevin Durant3+ ast88%of sims70%books imply
- Kevin Durant10+ reb + ast52%of sims41%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.