Kings vs Grizzlies prediction
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · FedExForum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 129, Kings 117.
Final: MEM 136–105. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Grizzlies 129, Kings 117 (the Grizzlies won 69% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 69% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 27 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast
- Nique Clifford Kings 18 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper Grizzlies 19 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast
- Cameron Boozer Grizzlies 17 pts · 12 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 29 | 31 | 22 | 35 | 117 |
| MEM | 28 | 33 | 32 | 36 | 129 |
Top scorers: Darius Acuff Jr. 27, Olivier-Maxence Prosper 19, Nique Clifford 18, Javon Small 17, Cameron Boozer 17, Zach LaVine 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 37 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 33 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 8-22 | 2-11 | 9-10 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach LaVine | 29 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nique Clifford | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 8-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 17 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Monk | 31 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Leaky Black | 19 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 30 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 5-17 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Cedric Coward | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 6-12 | 0-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Zach Edey | 24 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 24 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylen Wells | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahmai Mashack | 42 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 26 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerami Grant | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| GG Jackson | 16 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Cam Spencer | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Kings: Acuff 34 · Plowden 31 · LaVine 29 · Sabonis 29 · Achiuwa 28 · Clifford 24 · Monk 24 · Hunter 24 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell
Grizzlies: Mashack 38 · Boozer 30 · Grant 26 · Coward 25 · Wells 24 · Small 24 · Edey 23 · Prosper 21 (projected minutes). Out: Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Quinten Post
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Kings finish 68% at the basket (4th-best; 25% of their shots). Grizzlies allow 68% there (9th-highest).
Second chances. Grizzlies grab 28% of their misses (9th-most). Kings let opponents get 27% (12th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 49% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 54%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Boozer leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 25% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 38%.
What swings it
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (38% of sims), they win 47%, up from 31%.
When Grizzlies hit 16+ threes (30% of sims), they win 86%, up from 69%.
When Kings hit 13+ threes (37% of sims), they win 46%, up from 31%.
Reality check
Kings score 110.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Grizzlies score 113.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.6 against this defense.
Acuff: 24 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 23.3 · 3.3 · 4.7.
LaVine: 20.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 2.6 · 2.6.
Boozer: 15.4 pts · 10.8 reb · 6.2 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 17 · 8.8 · 5.5.
Prosper: 15.2 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 3.5 · 0.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 69% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Zach Edey12+ pts51%of sims34%books imply
- Zach Edey20+ pts + reb54%of sims42%books imply
- Jaylen Wells2+ ast59%of sims52%books imply
- Precious Achiuwa14+ pts52%of sims46%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.