Hawks vs Pelicans prediction
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 121, Pelicans 110.
Final: NO 121–99. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hawks 121, Pelicans 110 (the Hawks won 53% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 25 pts · 17 reb · 5 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 16 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 22 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
- Zion Williamson Pelicans 21 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 27 | 27 | 41 | 26 | 121 |
| NO | 18 | 31 | 37 | 24 | 110 |
Top scorers: Jalen Johnson 25, Jeremiah Fears 22, Zion Williamson 21, Trey Murphy III 20, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16, Bennedict Mathurin 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 33 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 5-8 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dyson Daniels | 32 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Johnson | 29 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 9-15 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 27 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CJ McCollum | 23 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Wilson | 33 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2-7 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Luguentz Dort | 23 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 23 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingston Flemings | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears | 40 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 8-20 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Julian Reese | 35 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Zion Williamson | 34 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 9-14 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Trey Murphy III | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Herbert Jones | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 29 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Derik Queen | 25 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Saddiq Bey | 21 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Johnson 33 · Alexander-Walker 33 · Daniels 31 · Okongwu 30 · McCollum 28 · Wilson 23 · Dort 22 · Wiggins 21 (projected minutes). Out: Jock Landale
Pelicans: Murphy 35 · Reese 31 · Williamson 31 · Fears 31 · Bey 29 · Queen 28 · Jones 23 · Mathurin 21 (projected minutes). Out: Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Jordan Poole
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Pelicans allow 6th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Pelicans take 36% of their shots from deep (2nd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Hawks give up 41% of shots from three (17th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 34% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 53%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 20%.
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 29% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 37%.
Murphy hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (35% of sims), they win 64%, up from 47%.
When Hawks hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 73%, up from 53%.
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (28% of sims), they win 65%, up from 47%.
Reality check
Hawks score 119 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117 against this defense.
Pelicans score 117.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.9 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 22.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 3.3 · 2.7.
Johnson: 18.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 9.8 · 6.7.
Fears: 20.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 4 · 4.7.
Williamson: 19.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.5 · 4.1 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.