Nets vs Pacers prediction
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pacers 124, Nets 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pacers won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 29 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Julius Randle Nets 28 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 21 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
- Jarace Walker Pacers 18 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 30 | 37 | 23 | 22 | 112 |
| IND | 20 | 39 | 29 | 36 | 124 |
Top scorers: Michael Porter Jr. 29, Julius Randle 28, Pascal Siakam 21, Jarace Walker 18, Kelly Oubre Jr. 17, Aaron Nesmith 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Powell | 34 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Julius Randle | 31 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 10-14 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 31 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 8-16 | 5-9 | 8-9 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Nolan Traore | 22 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Danny Wolf | 20 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Keon Ellis | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Saraf | 22 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Chaney Johnson | 22 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 19 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Minott | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 32 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 29 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jarace Walker | 28 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 25 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 23 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Slawson | 27 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quenton Jackson | 21 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Brown | 20 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jay Huff | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 31 · Saraf 29 · Porter 29 · Ellis 24 · Powell 24 · Minott 23 · Traore 21 · Wolf 20 (projected minutes). Out: Egor Demin, Mikel Brown Jr.
Pacers: Nembhard 30 · Siakam 30 · Nesmith 25 · Slawson 25 · Oubre 25 · Walker 23 · Jackson 22 · Brown 22 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Obi Toppin
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pacers grab 25% of their misses (2nd-fewest). Nets let opponents get 26% (4th-fewest).
At the rim. Nets finish 64% at the basket (the worst; 30% of their shots). Pacers allow 66% there (17th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 36% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 20%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 16%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 55% of sims.
Nembhard posts a double-double in 33%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 64%, up from 45%.
When Pacers hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 74%, up from 55%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Pacers (42% of sims), they win 60%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Nets score 105.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.1 against this defense.
Pacers score 116.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.2 against this defense.
Porter: 21.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 6.8 · 1.3.
Randle: 21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 6.2 · 4.2.
Siakam: 23.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.4 · 7.3 · 3.3.
Nembhard: 16.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.5 · 2.4 · 8.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pacers win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.