Thunder vs Cavaliers prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 112, Cavaliers 106.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 34 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Micah Peavy Thunder 16 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 21 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
- Peyton Watson Cavaliers 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 112 |
| CLE | 34 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 106 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 34, Donovan Mitchell 21, Peyton Watson 20, Micah Peavy 16, James Harden 16, Jarrett Allen 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Peavy | 29 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 27 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 14-24 | 0-7 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 26 | 8 | 18 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 25 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared McCain | 21 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Dix | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 21 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Jaylin Williams | 20 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenrich Williams | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 38 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 7-15 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| James Harden | 37 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Jarrett Allen | 29 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Evan Mobley | 26 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Peyton Watson | 24 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 7-15 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Sam Merrill | 29 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 34 · Mitchell 28 · Hartenstein 23 · McCain 23 · Peavy 22 · Dix 21 · Mara 21 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 30 · Mobley 29 · Merrill 28 · Allen 24 · Watson 24 · Thomas 23 · Hezonja 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jaylon Tyson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Cavaliers take 44% of their shots from deep (9th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Thunder give up 44% of shots from three (5th-most).
In transition. Cavaliers get out in transition 16th of 30 in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 14% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Cavaliers force turnovers on 14% (13th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 78% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 30%.
McCain hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 36% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 27%.
Harden hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Cavaliers hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 71%, up from 49%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 69%, up from 51%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (35% of sims), they win 67%, up from 49%.
Reality check
Thunder score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 122.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.2 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.2 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.5 · 4.4 · 4.9.
Mitchell: 12.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.5 · 3.3 · 4.
Mitchell: 23.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 4.2 · 4.9.
Mobley: 18.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.8 · 7.9 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 51% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (CLE −4.5): the Cavaliers cover in 40%.
Total 227.5: over in 47%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Peyton Watson2+ ast65%of sims60%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.