Celtics vs Magic prediction
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Kia Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 116, Magic 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 27 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Paul George Celtics 23 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Desmond Bane Magic 19 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- Franz Wagner Magic 18 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 33 | 33 | 27 | 23 | 116 |
| ORL | 31 | 26 | 29 | 25 | 111 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 27, Paul George 23, Desmond Bane 19, Franz Wagner 18, Derrick White 15, Tristan da Silva 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | 38 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 6-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul George | 33 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 8-19 | 4-11 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jayson Tatum | 32 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 9-15 | 1-4 | 8-9 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Neemias Queta | 22 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Walsh | 20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Payton Pritchard | 24 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hauser | 24 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luka Garza | 20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Conley | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | 33 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 33 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Franz Wagner | 28 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4-10 | 3-5 | 7-8 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Anthony Black | 21 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jase Richardson | 12 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 38 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4-12 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Jevon Carter | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Morales | 17 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jamal Cain | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Tatum 34 · Pritchard 33 · White 29 · George 29 · Scheierman 24 · Queta 23 · Hauser 23 · Garza 18 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter, Mitchell Robinson
Magic: Bane 30 · Carter 29 · da Silva 28 · Wagner 27 · Black 22 · Carter 21 · Cain 20 · Bitadze 17 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Celtics finish 69% at the basket (3rd-best; 24% of their shots). Magic allow 67% there (11th of 30).
In transition. Celtics get out in transition 2nd-fewest in the NBA. Magic allow 17th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Magic force turnovers on 14% (12th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 57% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 35%.
George hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 35% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 20%.
Bane hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Magic hit 14+ threes (36% of sims), they win 61%, up from 43%.
When Celtics hit 16+ threes (38% of sims), they win 75%, up from 57%.
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (38% of sims), they win 58%, up from 43%.
Reality check
Celtics score 120 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.2 against this defense.
Magic score 114.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Tatum: 26.2 pts · 9.1 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25 · 8.3 · 4.8.
George: 20.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 5.1 · 2.4.
Wagner: 17.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.7 · 4.5 · 4.4.
Bane: 17.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18 · 4 · 4.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.