Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · AT&T Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20.
Final: ARI 33–30. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20 (the Cowboys won 57% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cowboys won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jacoby Brissett Cardinals 189 pass yds · 1 TD
- Tyler Allgeier Cardinals 57 rush yds · 1 TD
- Trey McBride Cardinals 5 rec · 64 yds · 1 TD
- Dak Prescott Cowboys 312 pass yds · 2 TD
- Javonte Williams Cowboys 49 rush yds · 1 TD
- CeeDee Lamb Cowboys 10 rec · 122 yds · 2 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stDAL 51-yd field goal 0–3
- 1stARI Allgeier 15-yd TD run 7–3
- 2ndDAL Williams 1-yd TD run 7–10
- 2ndARI 33-yd field goal 10–10
- 3rdARI 41-yd field goal 13–10
- 3rdDAL Prescott to Lamb, 7-yd TD 13–17
- 4thARI Brissett to McBride, 18-yd TD 20–17
- 4thDAL Prescott to Lamb, 7-yd TD 20–24
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/28 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 15 | 57 | 1 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 64 | 1 | 18 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 28 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 13 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Reggie Virgil | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/40 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 16 | 49 | 1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 14 | 122 | 2 | 40 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 32 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 13 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 19 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 22 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
The breakdown
Who's in the sim
Cardinals: QB Brissett · McBride 28% of targets · Wilson 21% of targets · Bourne 16% of targets · Love 40% of carries. Back: Love (missed 2 of 7), Knight (missed 2 of 7). Out: Jalen Brooks
Cowboys: QB Prescott · Lamb 29% of targets · Pickens 21% of targets · Flournoy 16% of targets · Williams 68% of carries
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Takeaways. Cardinals throw an interception on 2% of passes (11th of 32). Cowboys pick off 1% (2nd-fewest).
The pass rush. Cowboys take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (the fewest). Cardinals get home on 6% (14th of 32), blitzing on 28% of dropbacks.
On the ground. Cowboys average 4.3 yards a carry (10th-best). Cardinals allow 4.3 (7th-most).
Brissett vs the blitz: 5.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cowboys blitz on 28% of dropbacks (10th-fewest).
Brissett's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.74 seconds on average, scrambles on 3.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Cowboys let quarterbacks escape 18% more often than average.
Love to the right: 3.8 yards a carry there (33% of his runs), and Cowboys give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.
McBride draws 28% of the Cardinals targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Prescott vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cardinals blitz on 28% of dropbacks (11th-fewest).
Prescott's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.80 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Cardinals let quarterbacks escape 16% less often than average.
Williams to the left: 5.4 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Cardinals give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.
Lamb draws 29% of the Cowboys targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
McBride leads the Cardinals in receiving yards in 46% of sims.
Brissett throws for 300+ in 25%.
Love runs for 100+ in 6%.
McBride scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.
Lamb leads the Cowboys in receiving yards in 49% of sims.
Prescott throws for 300+ in 32%.
Williams runs for 100+ in 35%.
Williams scores a touchdown in 60%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Cardinals run for 130+ yards (32% of sims), they win 76%, up from 41%.
When Cowboys run for 150+ yards (32% of sims), they win 87%, up from 57%.
When Williams runs for 120+ (23% of sims), they win 89%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Cardinals score 20.3 a game (last 7). In the sims: 24.7 against this defense.
Cowboys score 27 a game (last 7). In the sims: 27.5 against this defense.
Brissett: 230.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 251.
McBride: 8.2 catches, 67.1 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 7.3, 74.
Love: 49 rush yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 42.
Prescott: 240.1 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 265.
Lamb: 6.8 catches, 82.1 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.2, 83.
Williams: 67.4 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 88.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cowboys win 57% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DAL −7): the Cowboys cover in 36%.
Total 54.5: over in 42%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.