Vikings vs Lions prediction
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Ford Field. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lions 24, Vikings 20.
Final: DET 19–15. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Lions 24, Vikings 20 (the Lions won 63% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lions won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Kyler Murray Vikings 203 pass yds · 2 TD
- Jordan Mason Vikings 60 rush yds
- Jordan Addison Vikings 2 rec · 66 yds
- Jared Goff Lions 227 pass yds · 3 TD
- Jahmyr Gibbs Lions 110 rush yds
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Lions 7 rec · 89 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stMIN 29-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stMIN Murray to Jones, 20-yd TD 10–0
- 2ndDET Goff to Wright, 1-yd TD 10–7
- 3rdDET Goff to Brown, 17-yd TD 10–14
- 3rdMIN Murray to Hockenson, 8-yd TD 17–14
- 4thMIN 28-yd field goal 20–14
- 4thDET Goff to TeSlaa, 8-yd TD 20–21
- 4thDET 37-yd field goal 20–24
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 13/28 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 51 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 38 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 11 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 20 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/34 | 227 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 24 | 110 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 28 |
| Sam LaPorta | 8 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 15 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 16 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 11 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
The breakdown
The setup
Vikings start Kyler Murray, who took 36% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.
Vikings blitz on 53% of dropbacks (the most in the NFL).
Vikings use play action on 27% of dropbacks (4th-most).
Lions use play action on 27% of dropbacks (3rd-most).
Who's in the sim
Vikings: QB Murray · Jefferson 26% of targets · Hockenson 20% of targets · Addison 16% of targets · Jones 44% of carries. Back: Mason (missed 4 of 6)
Lions: QB Goff · St. Brown 29% of targets · LaPorta 19% of targets · Williams 19% of targets · Gibbs 80% of carries
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
After the catch. Vikings gain −0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (6th-worst). Lions allow −0.5 (the best tackling).
The pass rush. Vikings take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (4th-most). Lions get home on 7% (7th-most), blitzing on 30% of dropbacks.
Through the air. Vikings complete −0.2 pts more passes than expected (15th of 32). Lions allow +1.3 pts vs expected (6th-most generous).
Murray vs the blitz: 4.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Lions blitz on 30% of dropbacks (18th of 32).
Murray's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Jones to the right: 4.1 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Lions give up +0.0 yards a carry on that side.
Jefferson draws 26% of the Vikings targets and averages 3.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Goff vs the blitz: 7.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Vikings blitz on 53% of dropbacks (the most).
Goff's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.77 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Gibbs to the right: 5.0 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Vikings give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.
4th downs: Lions go for it 1.3× as often as an average coach in the same spots.
St. Brown draws 29% of the Lions targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jefferson leads the Vikings in receiving yards in 43% of sims.
Murray throws for 300+ in 6%.
Mason runs for 100+ in 7%.
Jones scores a touchdown in 33%, the likeliest on his team.
St. Brown leads the Lions in receiving yards in 43% of sims.
Goff throws for 300+ in 18%.
Gibbs runs for 100+ in 47%.
Gibbs scores a touchdown in 64%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Vikings run for 140+ yards (29% of sims), they win 68%, up from 35%.
When Lions run for 150+ yards (31% of sims), they win 92%, up from 63%.
When Gibbs runs for 130+ (27% of sims), they win 92%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Vikings score 20.8 a game (last 6). In the sims: 19.2 against this defense.
Lions score 30.7 a game (last 6). In the sims: 24 against this defense.
Murray: 162.4 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 195.
Jefferson: 5 catches, 62.1 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.5, 55.
Mason: 73.7 rush yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 46.
Goff: 289.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 239.
St. Brown: 8.1 catches, 92.6 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.6, 72.
Gibbs: 92.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 101.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lions win 63% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DET −3): the Lions cover in 55%.
Total 46.5: over in 39%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.