Nuggets vs Suns prediction
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 111, Suns 110.
Final: DEN 127–120. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Nuggets 111, Suns 110 (the Nuggets won 54% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- DeMar DeRozan Nuggets 19 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 18 pts · 11 reb · 4 ast
- Jalen Green Suns 22 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 19 pts · 4 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 28 | 31 | 22 | 30 | 111 |
| PHX | 29 | 22 | 28 | 31 | 110 |
Top scorers: Jalen Green 22, Devin Booker 19, DeMar DeRozan 19, Nikola Jokic 18, Aaron Gordon 17, Miles Bridges 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 36 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 34 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Braun | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikola Jokic | 29 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 8-14 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-6 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 30 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Trevon Brazile | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 21 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Whitmore | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | 35 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 32 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Miles Bridges | 31 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Booker | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 9-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 18 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 9-17 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Collin Gillespie | 35 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 24 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Khaman Maluach | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 39 · Jokic 36 · Braun 33 · Gordon 30 · DeRozan 27 · Brazile 24 · Nembhard 20 · Bagley 18 (projected minutes). Out: Cameron Johnson, Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones
Suns: Booker 34 · Bridges 29 · Brooks 27 · Green 26 · Gillespie 25 · Kennard 24 · Ighodaro 24 · Goodwin 22 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Nuggets get out in transition 5th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 6th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Suns take 45% of their shots from deep (7th-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Nuggets give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
Ball security. Suns turn it over on 14% of possessions (12th of 30). Nuggets force turnovers on 14% (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 43% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 65%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 55% of sims.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 68%, up from 46%.
When Nuggets hit 12+ threes (33% of sims), they win 71%, up from 54%.
When Nuggets commit fewer turnovers than Suns (37% of sims), they win 70%, up from 54%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 125.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.5 against this defense.
Suns score 113.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.8 against this defense.
Murray: 26.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.3 · 4.1 · 5.2.
Jokic: 24.7 pts · 13 reb · 10.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.5 · 11.2 · 7.2.
Booker: 27.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.5 · 3.6 · 4.8.
Green: 17.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.7 · 3.5 · 2.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 54% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −4.5): the Nuggets cover in 44%.
Total 231.5: over in 37%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Trevon Brazile6+ reb59%of sims46%books imply
- Trevon Brazile15+ pts + reb53%of sims42%books imply
- Jordan Goodwin5+ reb50%of sims44%books imply
- Collin Gillespie4+ ast52%of sims46%books imply
- Jordan Goodwin10+ pts + reb67%of sims62%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.