Clippers vs Warriors prediction
LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Warriors 113, Clippers 101.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Warriors won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Rui Hachimura Clippers 20 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast
- Darius Garland Clippers 19 pts · 0 reb · 8 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 25 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Brandin Podziemski Warriors 19 pts · 5 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 27 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 101 |
| GS | 34 | 25 | 16 | 38 | 113 |
Top scorers: Yaxel Lendeborg 25, Rui Hachimura 20, Darius Garland 19, Brandin Podziemski 19, Brandon Williams 17, Graham Ike 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 34 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 8-20 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Rui Hachimura | 29 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 27 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kris Dunn | 26 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Brook Lopez | 21 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Wagler | 23 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 18 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kobe Sanders | 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gradey Dick | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Blake Wesley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Baba Miller | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jalen Pickett | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Martinelli | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 36 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 10-11 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 34 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Gui Santos | 26 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Al Horford | 26 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Graham Ike | 19 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georges Niang | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-10 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LJ Cryer | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 17 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gary Payton II | 15 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Malevy Leons | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Clippers: Garland 29 · Wagler 28 · Hachimura 26 · Dunn 25 · Jones 25 · Lopez 24 · Jackson 21 · Sanders 20 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Bradley Beal
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 28 · Santos 25 · Williams 21 · Melton 21 · Niang 21 · Horford 20 · Cryer 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Clippers turn it over on 16% of possessions (the most). Warriors force turnovers on 16% (3rd-most).
At the rim. Clippers finish 68% at the basket (4th-best; 28% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).
Second chances. Warriors grab 28% of their misses (5th-most). Clippers let opponents get 28% (7th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 42% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Lendeborg leads the Warriors in scoring in 35% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Clippers hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 65%, up from 43%.
When Warriors hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 75%, up from 57%.
When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (38% of sims), they win 60%, up from 43%.
Reality check
Clippers score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.5 against this defense.
Warriors score 113.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.3 against this defense.
Garland: 18.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 1.9 · 5.4.
Wagler: 14.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 16.2 · 4.5 · 3.3.
Lendeborg: 19.8 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 17.3 · 6.9 · 2.9.
Podziemski: 18.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.4 · 3.6 · 4.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Warriors win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Brook Lopez15+ pts + reb64%of sims50%books imply
- Brook Lopez5+ reb57%of sims44%books imply
- Keaton Wagler14+ pts63%of sims51%books imply
- Brook Lopez11+ pts58%of sims48%books imply
- Keaton Wagler20+ pts + reb53%of sims42%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.