Kings vs Pelicans prediction
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pelicans 119, Kings 114.
Final: NO 132–120. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pelicans 119, Kings 114 (the Pelicans won 66% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pelicans won 66% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 24 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Precious Achiuwa Kings 18 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Saddiq Bey Pelicans 24 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Zion Williamson Pelicans 22 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 26 | 25 | 31 | 32 | 114 |
| NO | 37 | 31 | 21 | 30 | 119 |
Top scorers: Saddiq Bey 24, Darius Acuff Jr. 24, Zion Williamson 22, Derik Queen 18, Precious Achiuwa 18, Zach LaVine 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 39 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 9-19 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 39 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach LaVine | 35 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Nique Clifford | 29 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 20 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 21 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Monk | 12 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 33 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 33 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 10-15 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Reese | 31 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zion Williamson | 31 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 10-10 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 5-10 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Derik Queen | 31 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 6-15 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 27 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Trendon Watford | 12 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Kings: Acuff 35 · LaVine 30 · Sabonis 29 · Achiuwa 28 · Clifford 28 · Plowden 25 · Hunter 24 · Black 22 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell
Pelicans: Murphy 35 · Reese 31 · Williamson 31 · Fears 30 · Bey 30 · Queen 28 · Mathurin 22 · Jones 18 (projected minutes). Out: Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Jordan Poole
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pelicans grab 27% of their misses (14th of 30). Kings let opponents get 28% (5th-most).
At the rim. Kings finish 68% at the basket (7th-best; 24% of their shots). Pelicans allow 67% there (13th of 30).
Ball security. Pelicans turn it over on 15% of possessions (13th of 30). Kings force turnovers on 14% (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 47% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 52%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 26% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 39%.
Murphy hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 14+ threes (29% of sims), they win 55%, up from 34%.
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (44% of sims), they win 48%, up from 34%.
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Kings (48% of sims), they win 77%, up from 66%.
Reality check
Kings score 110.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.8 against this defense.
Pelicans score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.5 against this defense.
Acuff: 21.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 4. In the sims: 22.8 · 2.7 · 3.7.
LaVine: 20.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 2.4 · 2.7.
Williamson: 20 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 4.2 · 2.9.
Fears: 19.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.6 · 3.8 · 4.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pelicans win 66% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Precious Achiuwa14+ pts52%of sims34%books imply
- Saddiq Bey2+ ast71%of sims56%books imply
- Saddiq Bey15+ pts + ast68%of sims54%books imply
- Derik Queen25+ pts + reb + ast56%of sims44%books imply
- Saddiq Bey15+ pts55%of sims43%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.