WASStefon DiggsWR
3+Receptions
- Hit rate
- 95%21 of 22
- Matchup
- #27Easy
Last 20: cleared 19
vs Eagles · Pass D vs WR
Ourrating92Board
Backed By Stats: free NFL & NBA player prop trends and hit rates
The alternate lines each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games, rated 0–100 for this week's matchup — and every trend we show is graded in public.
NFL Track Record: 1,908 of 2,452 graded trends hit (77.8%) · See every result →
2 games on the board. Next kickoff: Sun 8:20 PM ET · Eagles at Commanders
Top picks
17 games on the board. Next tip-off: Sun 8:30 PM ET · Clippers at Warriors
Top picks · Mon 11/2
SADe'Aaron FoxG
15+Pts+Ast
- Hit rate
- 95%75 of 79
- Matchup
- #30Easy
Last 20: cleared 19
vs Jazz · D vs guards
Ourrating93Board
NYJalen BrunsonG
25+PRA
- Hit rate
- 95%77 of 81
- Matchup
- #19Good
Last 20: cleared 20
vs Nets · D vs guards
Ourrating92Board
PHILeBron JamesF
25+PRA
- Hit rate
- 94%61 of 65
- Matchup
- #29Easy
Last 20: cleared 18
vs Bulls · D vs forwards
Ourrating92Board
How a trend qualifies
An alternate line — the way sportsbooks post them — that the player has cleared in at least 80% of his games across last season and this season. Every hit rate shows its sample, so "19 of 20" never hides behind "95%".
Our Rating (0–100)
Our estimate of the probability the line hits: the hit rate, pulled toward the league average when the sample is small, then adjusted for the opponent's defense, the Vegas total and home/away. Full methodology
Graded in public
Every trend we show is graded after the game — hits and misses — using only what was known before kickoff. Build a slip from any trend and send it to Playbook for live odds.
Common questions
Is Backed By Stats really free?
Yes. The NFL and NBA prop boards, hit rates, matchup ratings, game simulations and Track Record are all free to use. There is no paywall, no premium tier and no credit card.
Do I need to sign up or make an account?
No. Everything works the moment the page opens, with no account and no email. The only sign-up on the site is an optional newsletter. Sending a slip to Playbook happens on X, so that one optional step uses your X account.
What is a prop hit rate?
The share of games a player has cleared a line. We use alternate lines the way sportsbooks post them, keep the ones cleared in at least 80% of games across last season and this season, and show the sample beside every number.
What does Our Rating mean?
Our estimate of the probability the line hits, from 0 to 100: the hit rate, pulled toward the league average when the sample is small, then adjusted for the opponent's defense, the Vegas total and more. The NFL and NBA methodology pages show the details.
What does defense vs position mean?
How much of a stat each defense gives up to a position, ranked across the league. Our free tables cover the NFL and the NBA; #1 is the toughest matchup.
How often is the data updated?
Several times a day. Injuries, rosters, sportsbook prices and game lines refresh automatically, and anyone ruled out comes off the board.