Bears vs Seahawks prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stSEA Darnold to Smith-Njigba, 14-yd TD 0–7
2. 1stSEA Darnold to Smith-Njigba, 38-yd TD 0–14
3. 2ndCHI Williams 5-yd TD run 7–14
4. 2ndSEA Darnold to Kupp, 8-yd TD 7–21
5. 3rdCHI Williams to Loveland, 1-yd TD 14–21
6. 3rdCHI Swift 3-yd TD run 21–21
7. 4thSEA 28-yd field goal 21–24

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Bears blitz on 35% of dropbacks (5th-most in the NFL).

   Seahawks blitz on 26% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest in the NFL).

   Bears use play action on 30% of dropbacks (the most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Bears: QB Williams · Loveland 23% of targets · Burden 21% of targets · Odunze 19% of targets · Swift 61% of carries. Out: Kyle Monangai

   Seahawks: QB Darnold · Smith-Njigba 35% of targets · Barner 17% of targets · Kupp 15% of targets · Wilson 43% of carries. Back: Charbonnet (missed 7 of 7). Out: Rashid Shaheed

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Takeaways. Seahawks throw an interception on 3% of passes (2nd-most). Bears pick off 3% (4th-most).

   Through the air. Seahawks complete +1.1 pts more passes than expected (8th-best). Bears allow +1.2 pts vs expected (7th-most generous).

   After the catch. Seahawks gain +0.1 yards after the catch vs expected (7th-best). Bears allow +0.0 (10th-worst tackling).

   Williams vs the blitz: 7.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Seahawks blitz on 26% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest).

   Williams's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.21 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Seahawks let quarterbacks escape 16% more often than average.

   Swift to the right: 4.5 yards a carry there (53% of his runs), and Seahawks give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Loveland draws 23% of the Bears targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Darnold vs the blitz: 7.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bears blitz on 35% of dropbacks (5th-most).

   Darnold's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.93 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Wilson to the left: 4.4 yards a carry there (29% of his runs), and Bears give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Seahawks go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Smith-Njigba draws 35% of the Seahawks targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Burden leads the Bears in receiving yards in 32% of sims.

   Williams throws for 300+ in 10%.

   Swift runs for 100+ in 17%.

   Swift scores a touchdown in 45%, the likeliest on his team.

   Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks in receiving yards in 76% of sims.

   Darnold throws for 300+ in 23%.

   Wilson runs for 100+ in 12%.

   Smith-Njigba scores a touchdown in 58%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Bears run for 140+ yards (29% of sims), they win 73%, up from 39%.

   When Swift runs for 90+ (22% of sims), they win 75%, up from 39%.

   When Seahawks run for 160+ yards (29% of sims), they win 89%, up from 60%.

7. Reality check

   Bears score 25.7 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21.7 against this defense.

   Seahawks score 24 a game (last 7). In the sims: 25.3 against this defense.

   Williams: 246.4 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 212.

   Burden: 4.8 catches, 65.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.5, 53.

   Swift: 64.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 63.

   Darnold: 212.6 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 248.

   Smith-Njigba: 8 catches, 118.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 7.6, 107.

   Charbonnet: 74 rush yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 43.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Seahawks win 60% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (SEA −3): the Seahawks cover in 52%.

   Total 46.5: over in 51%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Emanuel Wilson10+ rush yds
     96%of sims
     76%books imply
   • Kalif Raymond3+ catches
     53%of sims
     42%books imply
   • Kalif Raymond20+ rec yds
     58%of sims
     47%books imply
   • AJ Barner30+ rec yds
     59%of sims
     52%books imply
   • Jaxon Smith-Njigbaanytime TD
     58%of sims
     52%books imply