Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Jaden McDaniels 24, Stephen Curry 23, Yaxel Lendeborg 18, LaMelo Ball 16, Ayo Dosunmu 16, Gary Payton II 14

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).

2. Who's in the sim

   Warriors: Lendeborg 33 · Podziemski 30 · Green 28 · Curry 27 · Melton 23 · Horford 22 · Williams 20 · Payton 19 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis

   Timberwolves: Dosunmu 31 · McDaniels 31 · Gobert 30 · Ball 28 · Williams 27 · Kuminga 25 · Hyland 19 · Shannon 19 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Second chances. Timberwolves grab 28% of their misses (8th-most). Warriors let opponents get 28% (3rd-most).

   In transition. Warriors get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Timberwolves allow 10th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.

   At the rim. Timberwolves finish 67% at the basket (13th of 30; 29% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Lendeborg leads the Warriors in scoring in 34% of sims.

   Lendeborg posts a double-double in 33%.

   Curry hits 5+ threes in 16%.

   Ball leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 26% of sims.

   Gobert posts a double-double in 41%.

   Ball hits 5+ threes in 21%.

6. What swings it

   When Warriors hit 15+ threes (32% of sims), they win 53%, up from 34%.

   When Timberwolves hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 82%, up from 66%.

   When Timberwolves commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (44% of sims), they win 80%, up from 66%.

7. Reality check

   Warriors score 114.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.3 against this defense.

   Timberwolves score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.4 against this defense.

   Curry: 23.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.7 · 2.7 · 2.4.

   Lendeborg: 21.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 4. In the sims: 18.4 · 8.4 · 3.1.

   Ball: 20.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 7.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 3.5 · 5.7.

   Dosunmu: 15.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.1 · 5.2 · 4.5.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Timberwolves win 66% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (MIN −4.5): the Timberwolves cover in 57%.

   Total 227.5: over in 53%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Al Horford6+ pts
     60%of sims
     49%books imply
   • Jaden McDaniels3+ ast
     64%of sims
     56%books imply
   • Draymond Green6+ ast
     59%of sims
     52%books imply
   • De'Anthony Melton3+ ast
     52%of sims
     46%books imply
   • Ayo Dosunmu5+ reb
     54%of sims
     49%books imply