Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 119, Pelicans 116.
Final: DEN 104–91. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Nuggets 119, Pelicans 116 (the Nuggets won 52% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 52% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 27 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 23 pts · 11 reb · 8 ast
- Trey Murphy III Pelicans 21 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Derik Queen Pelicans 21 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 28 | 26 | 36 | 29 | 119 |
| NO | 33 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 116 |
Top scorers: Jamal Murray 27, Nikola Jokic 23, Derik Queen 21, DeMar DeRozan 21, Trey Murphy III 21, Dejounte Murray 20
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 40 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 9-22 | 3-12 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Nikola Jokic | 37 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 8-19 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Christian Braun | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Gordon | 34 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 31 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Trevon Brazile | 21 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cam Whitmore | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hopkins | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Reese | 41 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Trey Murphy III | 35 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Saddiq Bey | 33 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zion Williamson | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dejounte Murray | 30 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Derik Queen | 26 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 9-15 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 21 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 38 · Jokic 36 · Braun 32 · Gordon 29 · DeRozan 27 · Brazile 21 · Nembhard 20 · Bagley 18 (projected minutes). Out: Cameron Johnson, Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones
Pelicans: Murphy 35 · Reese 31 · Williamson 31 · Fears 31 · Bey 31 · Murray 30 · Queen 28 · Mathurin 23 (projected minutes). Out: Yves Missi
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. Nuggets allow 4th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Pelicans turn it over on 14% of possessions (9th-fewest). Nuggets force turnovers on 14% (2nd-fewest).
At the rim. Nuggets finish 68% at the basket (8th-best; 27% of their shots). Pelicans allow 68% there (12th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 46% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 63%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 15%.
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 22% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 36%.
Murphy hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (30% of sims), they win 65%, up from 48%.
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (27% of sims), they win 72%, up from 52%.
When Nuggets commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (44% of sims), they win 66%, up from 52%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 126.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.2 against this defense.
Pelicans score 116.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.4 against this defense.
Murray: 26 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 3.9 · 5.7.
Jokic: 24.8 pts · 13.3 reb · 10.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.8 · 10.7 · 7.5.
Fears: 20 pts · 4 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.2 · 3.4 · 3.6.
Williamson: 19.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.8 · 3.9 · 2.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 52% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −4.5): the Nuggets cover in 41%.
Total 240.5: over in 39%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Saddiq Bey15+ pts + ast64%of sims44%books imply
- Jeremiah Fears15+ pts + reb74%of sims55%books imply
- Jeremiah Fears10+ pts84%of sims67%books imply
- Derik Queen25+ pts + reb + ast52%of sims36%books imply
- Derik Queen13+ pts56%of sims40%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.