Hawks vs Pacers prediction
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 116, Pacers 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 20 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
- Onyeka Okongwu Hawks 18 pts · 9 reb · 1 ast
- Quenton Jackson Pacers 20 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 18 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 33 | 28 | 29 | 116 |
| IND | 24 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 107 |
Top scorers: Jalen Johnson 20, Quenton Jackson 20, Pascal Siakam 18, Kingston Flemings 18, Onyeka Okongwu 18, Andrew Nembhard 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 34 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 8-20 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| CJ McCollum | 29 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 28 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 7-18 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 27 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 26 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 7-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 27 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Wilson | 25 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 25 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Luguentz Dort | 18 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 29 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 28 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Jarace Walker | 19 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kobe Brown | 32 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Obi Toppin | 25 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Quenton Jackson | 22 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jay Huff | 19 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jalen Slawson | 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Hawks: Johnson 31 · Alexander-Walker 30 · Daniels 29 · Okongwu 28 · McCollum 26 · Wilson 25 · Dort 24 · Wiggins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jock Landale
Pacers: Nembhard 29 · Siakam 29 · Toppin 27 · Nesmith 25 · Oubre 25 · Walker 23 · Jackson 22 · Brown 22 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Hawks turn it over on 14% of possessions (7th-fewest). Pacers force turnovers on 14% (7th-fewest).
From three. Hawks take 43% of their shots from deep (11th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Pacers give up 39% of shots from three (2nd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring in 31% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 52%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 50% of sims.
Nembhard posts a double-double in 28%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 63%, up from 43%.
When Hawks hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 75%, up from 57%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (32% of sims), they win 60%, up from 43%.
Reality check
Hawks score 118.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.5 against this defense.
Pacers score 116.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.9 against this defense.
Alexander-Walker: 22.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 3.2 · 2.3.
Johnson: 17.9 pts · 9.9 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 10 · 6.3.
Siakam: 23.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.6 · 7.3 · 3.2.
Nembhard: 16.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.2 · 2.4 · 8.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.