Trail Blazers vs Nuggets prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Ball Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 113, Nuggets 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 52% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 19 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Toumani Camara Trail Blazers 18 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 20 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
- Christian Braun Nuggets 17 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 26 | 31 | 32 | 24 | 113 |
| DEN | 26 | 33 | 22 | 30 | 111 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 20, Damian Lillard 19, Toumani Camara 18, Christian Braun 17, DeMar DeRozan 16, Vit Krejci 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 35 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Damian Lillard | 34 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 6-14 | 2-9 | 5-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Toumani Camara | 31 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 7-14 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scoot Henderson | 26 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Donovan Clingan | 20 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Vit Krejci | 26 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jrue Holiday | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 3-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Williams III | 22 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 19 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0-8 | 0-7 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson | 40 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Braun | 38 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamal Murray | 32 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 4-13 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nikola Jokic | 30 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 6-12 | 2-3 | 6-8 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 25 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 26 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 21 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 31 · Camara 29 · Holiday 28 · Lillard 27 · Henderson 25 · Clingan 23 · Potter 21 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Nuggets: Murray 36 · Jokic 34 · Braun 31 · Gordon 28 · Johnson 28 · DeRozan 26 · Bagley 23 · Nembhard 19 (projected minutes). Out: Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Nuggets give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
In transition. Nuggets get out in transition 5th-fewest in the NBA. Trail Blazers allow 19th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Nuggets grab 26% of their misses (20th of 30). Trail Blazers let opponents get 26% (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Avdija posts a double-double in 16%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 16%.
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 40% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 61%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 16%.
What swings it
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (31% of sims), they win 66%, up from 48%.
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (35% of sims), they win 71%, up from 52%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Nuggets (46% of sims), they win 67%, up from 52%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.5 against this defense.
Nuggets score 125.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.
Avdija: 25.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.4 · 5.2 · 6.1.
Lillard: 19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 17.2 · 3.1 · 2.7.
Murray: 27.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.8 · 4.9 · 5.
Jokic: 24.3 pts · 11.8 reb · 9.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.8 · 10.6 · 7.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 52% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −4.5): the Nuggets cover in 38%.
Total 229.5: over in 54%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.