Patriots vs Dolphins prediction
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Patriots 28, Dolphins 17.
Final: NE 24–19. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Patriots 28, Dolphins 17 (the Patriots won 69% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Patriots won 69% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Drake Maye Patriots 195 pass yds · 2 TD
- Rhamondre Stevenson Patriots 88 rush yds · 2 TD
- Hunter Henry Patriots 4 rec · 77 yds
- Malik Willis Dolphins 113 pass yds · 1 TD
- Ollie Gordon II Dolphins 49 rush yds · 1 TD
- Malik Washington Dolphins 5 rec · 43 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stNE Stevenson 4-yd TD run 7–0
- 1stNE Maye to Williams, 37-yd TD 14–0
- 2ndMIA 54-yd field goal 14–3
- 2ndNE Maye to Raridon, 13-yd TD 21–3
- 3rdMIA Gordon 1-yd TD run 21–10
- 4thNE Stevenson 42-yd TD run 28–10
- 4thMIA Willis to Bell, 7-yd TD 28–17
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 13/19 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 23 | 88 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 21 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 37 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 16 |
| Efton Chism III | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 13 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 16/24 | 113 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | 16 | 49 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Washington | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 13 |
| Greg Dulcich | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 9 |
| Chris Bell | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 12 |
| Caleb Douglas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Dolphins start Malik Willis, who took 48% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.
Who's in the sim
Patriots: QB Maye · Henry 25% of targets · Douglas 23% of targets · Raridon 16% of targets · Stevenson 54% of carries. Out: TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown
Dolphins: QB Willis · Washington 20% of targets · Dulcich 20% of targets · Douglas 19% of targets · Gordon 54% of carries. Back: Douglas (missed 3 of 6)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. Patriots complete +3.5 pts more passes than expected (the best). Dolphins allow +4.7 pts vs expected (the most generous).
The pass rush. Dolphins take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (5th-most). Patriots get home on 7% (19th of 32), blitzing on 33% of dropbacks.
After the catch. Patriots gain 0.0 yards after the catch vs expected (11th of 32). Dolphins allow +0.0 (9th-worst tackling).
Maye vs the blitz: 8.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Dolphins blitz on 31% of dropbacks (16th of 32).
Maye's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.02 seconds on average, scrambles on 9.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Stevenson to the left: 4.6 yards a carry there (40% of his runs), and Dolphins give up −0.0 yards a carry on that side.
Douglas draws 23% of the Patriots targets and averages 3.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Willis vs the blitz: 6.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Patriots blitz on 33% of dropbacks (7th-most).
Willis's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.12 seconds on average, scrambles on 10.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Gordon to the left: 4.8 yards a carry there (36% of his runs), and Patriots give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Washington draws 20% of the Dolphins targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Henry leads the Patriots in receiving yards in 36% of sims.
Maye throws for 300+ in 22%.
Stevenson runs for 100+ in 18%.
Stevenson scores a touchdown in 55%, the likeliest on his team.
Douglas leads the Dolphins in receiving yards in 30% of sims.
Willis throws for 300+ in 5%.
Gordon runs for 100+ in 16%.
Gordon scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Dolphins run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 59%, up from 29%.
When Gordon runs for 80+ (28% of sims), they win 59%, up from 29%.
When Patriots run for 160+ yards (28% of sims), they win 93%, up from 69%.
Reality check
Patriots score 22.9 a game (last 7). In the sims: 27.4 against this defense.
Dolphins score 16.3 a game (last 6). In the sims: 20.4 against this defense.
Maye: 246.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 248.
Henry: 3.9 catches, 44 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.3, 66.
Stevenson: 52 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 66.
Willis: 176.2 pass yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 193.
Douglas: 3 catches, 61 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 3.2, 45.
Gordon: 58 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 62.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Patriots win 69% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NE −7): the Patriots cover in 47%.
Total 41.5: over in 66%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.