76ers vs Hornets prediction
Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Spectrum Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hornets 111, 76ers 107.
Final: PHI 109–104. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hornets 111, 76ers 107 (the Hornets won 57% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hornets won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 31 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 26 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
- Naz Reid Hornets 26 pts · 11 reb · 1 ast
- Brandon Miller Hornets 19 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 20 | 24 | 27 | 36 | 107 |
| CHA | 39 | 18 | 28 | 26 | 111 |
Top scorers: Jaylen Brown 31, Naz Reid 26, Tyrese Maxey 26, Brandon Miller 19, Liam McNeeley 16, Royce O'Neale 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 39 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 9-24 | 4-11 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | 37 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 9-17 | 2-2 | 11-12 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dean Wade | 37 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 36 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 27 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 27 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adem Bona | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb Love | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 34 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 10-19 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Brandon Miller | 28 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 4-10 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dennis Schroder | 25 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Moussa Diabate | 24 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sion James | 19 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce O'Neale | 23 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam McNeeley | 22 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 8-8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Grayson Allen | 19 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 17 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 103).
76ers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Hornets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
76ers: Brown 36 · Maxey 36 · Edgecombe 35 · Rupert 32 · Simons 26 · Caldwell-Pope 24 · Wade 23 · Love 14 (projected minutes). Out: Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Dominick Barlow
Hornets: Miller 33 · Diabate 28 · Reid 27 · Schroder 26 · Allen 25 · James 24 · O'Neale 20 · Kalkbrenner 18 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. 76ers grab 25% of their misses (the fewest). Hornets let opponents get 25% (2nd-fewest).
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 15% of possessions (3rd-most). 76ers force turnovers on 15% (8th-most).
From three. 76ers take 40% of their shots from deep (7th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Hornets give up 41% of shots from three (8th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brown leads the 76ers in scoring in 45% of sims.
Brown posts a double-double in 23%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 55% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 18%.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 27%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 15+ threes (32% of sims), they win 63%, up from 43%.
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 77%, up from 57%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (26% of sims), they win 77%, up from 57%.
Reality check
76ers score 111.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.6 against this defense.
Hornets score 106.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.9 against this defense.
Brown: 26.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.7 · 7.1 · 3.7.
Maxey: 25.4 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.1 · 4.6 · 4.
Miller: 21.2 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 4.6 · 2.8.
Reid: 14.8 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.6 · 6.6 · 1.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hornets win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.