Hornets vs Wizards prediction
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Capital One Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hornets 115, Wizards 106.
Final: WSH 95–79. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hornets 115, Wizards 106 (the Hornets won 63% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hornets won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Grayson Allen Hornets 21 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
- Dennis Schroder Hornets 20 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
- Anthony Davis Wizards 24 pts · 14 reb · 1 ast
- Kyshawn George Wizards 21 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 25 | 27 | 35 | 28 | 115 |
| WSH | 21 | 21 | 32 | 32 | 106 |
Top scorers: Anthony Davis 24, Kyshawn George 21, Grayson Allen 21, Dennis Schroder 20, Brandon Miller 17, Alex Sarr 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | 39 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8-14 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Brandon Miller | 35 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 4-15 | 4-11 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Moussa Diabate | 35 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Naz Reid | 26 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6-16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sion James | 24 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 6-13 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Royce O'Neale | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 47 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Kyshawn George | 30 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 8-10 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 27 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trae Young | 26 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3-15 | 2-9 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 27 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Riley | 25 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | 19 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Hornets: Miller 32 · Diabate 28 · Reid 27 · Schroder 25 · Allen 25 · James 23 · O'Neale 20 · Kalkbrenner 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams
Wizards: Davis 33 · Young 29 · Gill 28 · Dybantsa 27 · Riley 26 · Carrington 25 · George 25 · Coulibaly 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Hornets grab 29% of their misses (2nd-most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (the most).
In transition. Wizards get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Hornets allow 5th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Wizards take 40% of their shots from deep (9th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Hornets give up 41% of shots from three (10th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 54% of sims.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 26%.
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 37% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 53%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 13+ threes (27% of sims), they win 56%, up from 37%.
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 82%, up from 63%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Wizards (40% of sims), they win 79%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Hornets score 109.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.8 against this defense.
Wizards score 113.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110 against this defense.
Miller: 21.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.3 · 3.9 · 3.
Reid: 14.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 5.7 · 1.7.
Davis: 21.4 pts · 9.8 reb · 2.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 10.7 · 1.8.
Dybantsa: 19 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast over his last 1. In the sims: 12.9 · 2.3 · 1.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hornets win 63% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.