Bulls vs Celtics prediction
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, Friday, October 30, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 117, Bulls 109.
Final: BOS 125–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Celtics 117, Bulls 109 (the Celtics won 68% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 68% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Caleb Wilson Bulls 25 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 19 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 28 pts · 9 reb · 6 ast
- Paul George Celtics 20 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 26 | 33 | 25 | 109 |
| BOS | 31 | 25 | 31 | 30 | 117 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 27, Caleb Wilson 25, Paul George 20, Matas Buzelis 19, Tre Jones 17, Patrick Williams 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 32 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 5-13 | 3-9 | 6-7 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| Caleb Wilson | 31 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 11-16 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Smith | 25 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-6 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Norman Powell | 21 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Josh Giddey | 19 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Miller | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okoro | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Williams | 25 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Jones | 24 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 35 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 9-27 | 4-12 | 6-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick White | 33 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Paul George | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Neemias Queta | 27 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Walsh | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 31 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Sam Hauser | 26 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 24 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 23 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Luka Garza | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Bulls: Wilson 35 · Giddey 31 · Buzelis 29 · Powell 28 · Miller 27 · Okoro 23 · Smith 23 · Jones 23 (projected minutes). Out: Nic Claxton
Celtics: Tatum 36 · White 32 · George 31 · Pritchard 29 · Hauser 25 · Queta 24 · Scheierman 21 · Robinson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Bulls take 45% of their shots from deep (8th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Celtics give up 46% of shots from three (the most).
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 14% (3rd-fewest).
At the rim. Bulls finish 64% at the basket (2nd-worst; 35% of their shots). Celtics allow 65% there (9th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 39% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 37%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 56% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 40%.
George hits 5+ threes in 19%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 16+ threes (30% of sims), they win 51%, up from 32%.
When Celtics hit 17+ threes (39% of sims), they win 84%, up from 68%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (33% of sims), they win 47%, up from 32%.
Reality check
Bulls score 115.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.9 against this defense.
Celtics score 119.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.2 against this defense.
Wilson: 20.8 pts · 7 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 20.1 · 6.7 · 1.7.
Powell: 19.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 2.6 · 1.4.
Tatum: 25.6 pts · 9.5 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 26 · 8.5 · 5.7.
George: 20.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 4.7 · 2.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 68% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.