Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers prediction
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Moda Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 116, Grizzlies 111.
Final: MEM 124–103. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Trail Blazers 116, Grizzlies 111 (the Trail Blazers won 58% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 25 pts · 2 reb · 9 ast
- Jerami Grant Grizzlies 18 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 24 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 17 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 40 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 111 |
| POR | 31 | 34 | 27 | 24 | 116 |
Top scorers: Ty Jerome 24, Deni Avdija 24, Jerami Grant 18, Damian Lillard 17, Zach Edey 14, Branden Carlson 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | 28 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 8-12 | 4-5 | 5-7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Boozer | 27 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cedric Coward | 26 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wells | 24 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Edey | 18 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerami Grant | 33 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Javon Small | 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| GG Jackson | 24 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 33 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 9-10 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Deni Avdija | 30 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 7-15 | 2-3 | 8-12 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Toumani Camara | 27 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ja Morant | 25 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Clingan | 23 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Branden Carlson | 35 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jrue Holiday | 25 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Micah Potter | 21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scoot Henderson | 17 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Vit Krejci | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Grizzlies: Boozer 33 · Grant 28 · Jerome 27 · Coward 26 · Wells 26 · Small 25 · Edey 25 · Prosper 23 (projected minutes)
Trail Blazers: Avdija 34 · Camara 32 · Holiday 30 · Lillard 29 · Henderson 26 · Morant 26 · Clingan 26 · Potter 21 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Robert Williams III
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Trail Blazers grab 29% of their misses (3rd-most). Grizzlies let opponents get 28% (3rd-most).
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Grizzlies give up 42% of shots from three (11th of 30).
Ball security. Trail Blazers turn it over on 15% of possessions (7th-most). Grizzlies force turnovers on 15% (10th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 37% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 34%.
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 34% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 26%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Grizzlies hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 62%, up from 42%.
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (31% of sims), they win 78%, up from 58%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (43% of sims), they win 73%, up from 58%.
Reality check
Grizzlies score 112.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.6 against this defense.
Trail Blazers score 119.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.9 against this defense.
Jerome: 23.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 2.7 · 6.
Prosper: 16.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 12.4 · 3.6 · 0.9.
Avdija: 24.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 6.2 · 5.3.
Lillard: 21.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 4 ast over his last 3. In the sims: 16.7 · 4 · 2.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Scoot Henderson9+ pts67%of sims55%books imply
- Jaylen Wells2+ ast53%of sims44%books imply
- Zach Edey10+ pts52%of sims43%books imply
- Jrue Holiday20+ pts + reb + ast63%of sims56%books imply
- Jrue Holiday15+ pts + reb68%of sims63%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.