Rockets vs Mavericks prediction
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, Friday, October 30, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 118, Mavericks 110.
Final: DAL 116–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 118, Mavericks 110 (the Rockets won 60% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Amen Thompson Rockets 27 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 27 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 32 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast
- Kyrie Irving Mavericks 14 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 33 | 24 | 36 | 25 | 118 |
| DAL | 23 | 40 | 24 | 23 | 110 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 32, Kevin Durant 27, Amen Thompson 27, Oscar Tshiebwe 20, Fred VanVleet 17, Kyrie Irving 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | 39 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Amen Thompson | 33 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 10-17 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | 33 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 9-15 | 3-8 | 6-7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Fred VanVleet | 27 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 26 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tari Eason | 31 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 26 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 2-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Clint Capela | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 30 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 12-20 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| P.J. Washington | 24 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 23 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Christie | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Gafford | 22 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 29 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Naji Marshall | 25 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Rockets: Thompson 37 · Durant 36 · Smith 34 · VanVleet 30 · Smart 29 · Eason 25 · Tshiebwe 21 · Bogdanovic 14 (projected minutes). Out: Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams
Mavericks: Washington 33 · Flagg 31 · Marshall 30 · Irving 27 · Christie 27 · Gafford 22 · Risacher 22 · Clayton 21 (projected minutes). Out: Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Rockets take 37% of their shots from deep (3rd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Mavericks give up 40% of shots from three (3rd-fewest).
Second chances. Rockets grab 30% of their misses (the most). Mavericks let opponents get 27% (9th-most).
In transition. Mavericks get out in transition 14th of 30 in the NBA. Rockets allow 6th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 42% of sims.
Tshiebwe posts a double-double in 32%.
Smith hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 50% of sims.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 12+ threes (33% of sims), they win 56%, up from 40%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (28% of sims), they win 77%, up from 60%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Rockets (46% of sims), they win 53%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Rockets score 123.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.9 against this defense.
Mavericks score 115.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.5 against this defense.
Durant: 25 pts · 6.1 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.4 · 5.4 · 6.2.
Thompson: 20.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 6.8 · 5.2.
Flagg: 25.6 pts · 6.6 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.8 · 5.3 · 5.1.
Irving: 18 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 4. In the sims: 14.4 · 2.7 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 60% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (HOU −5.5): the Rockets cover in 48%.
Total 223.5: over in 57%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Naji Marshall13+ pts66%of sims46%books imply
- Naji Marshall15+ pts + ast76%of sims56%books imply
- Naji Marshall20+ pts + reb + ast65%of sims49%books imply
- Kevin Durant10+ reb + ast68%of sims51%books imply
- Kevin Durant3+ ast95%of sims79%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.