Cavaliers vs Bucks prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 110, Bucks 107.
Final: CLE 136–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cavaliers 110, Bucks 107 (the Cavaliers won 58% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 25 pts · 6 reb · 7 ast
- Evan Mobley Cavaliers 22 pts · 12 reb · 3 ast
- Ryan Rollins Bucks 22 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 20 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 17 | 25 | 38 | 30 | 110 |
| MIL | 26 | 24 | 23 | 34 | 107 |
Top scorers: Donovan Mitchell 25, Ryan Rollins 22, Evan Mobley 22, Tyler Herro 20, Peyton Watson 18, James Harden 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 38 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 5-16 | 2-12 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 32 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 11-23 | 2-10 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Evan Mobley | 32 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 8-13 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Allen | 25 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Peyton Watson | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Merrill | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Thomas Bryant | 16 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 37 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8-23 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Rollins | 37 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 9-22 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| AJ Green | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 23 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 36 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Cormac Ryan | 27 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jericho Sims | 20 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Cavaliers: Harden 34 · Mitchell 33 · Mobley 31 · Merrill 27 · Watson 26 · Allen 26 · Thomas 20 · Hezonja 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jaylon Tyson
Bucks: Herro 32 · Jaquez 29 · Rollins 29 · Green 29 · Dieng 27 · Sims 25 · Ryan 25 · Kuzma 24 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Cavaliers take 44% of their shots from deep (9th-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Bucks give up 45% of shots from three (2nd-most).
Ball security. Cavaliers turn it over on 14% of possessions (11th of 30). Bucks force turnovers on 14% (the fewest).
At the rim. Cavaliers finish 67% at the basket (11th of 30; 30% of their shots). Bucks allow 69% there (4th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 40% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 31%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 27% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 20%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 19%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 62%, up from 42%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (34% of sims), they win 59%, up from 42%.
When Cavaliers hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 75%, up from 58%.
Reality check
Cavaliers score 120.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.4 against this defense.
Bucks score 111.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.7 against this defense.
Mitchell: 24.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.5 · 4.4 · 5.6.
Harden: 18.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 3.2 · 6.8.
Herro: 20.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.1 · 4.3 · 3.8.
Jaquez: 18.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 5.4 · 3.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Sam Merrill3+ ast61%of sims42%books imply
- AJ Green9+ pts57%of sims42%books imply
- AJ Green3+ threes51%of sims38%books imply
- Sam Merrill12+ pts + ast63%of sims54%books imply
- Sam Merrill15+ pts + reb + ast59%of sims52%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.