Eagles vs Commanders prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stPHI 35-yd field goal 3–0
2. 2ndWAS 62-yd field goal 3–3
3. 2ndPHI 51-yd field goal 6–3
4. 2ndWAS 21-yd field goal 6–6
5. 2ndPHI 60-yd field goal 9–6
6. 3rdWAS 45-yd field goal 9–9
7. 4thWAS Daniels to Diggs, 2-yd TD 9–16
8. 4thPHI Barkley 3-yd TD run 16–16
9. 4thWAS Daniels to Okonkwo, 17-yd TD 16–23

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Eagles start Tanner McKee, who took 23% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Eagles: QB McKee · Goedert 26% of targets · Lemon 23% of targets · Cooper 13% of targets · Barkley 75% of carries. Back: Barkley (missed 2 of 7), Goedert (missed 2 of 7). Out: Jalen Hurts, Dameon Pierce, Dontayvion Wicks, Tank Bigsby

   Commanders: QB Daniels · Diggs 22% of targets · Okonkwo 16% of targets · Williams 14% of targets · White 50% of carries. Back: Okonkwo (missed 2 of 6). Out: Athan Kaliakmanis, Jacory Croskey-Merritt

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Takeaways. Commanders throw an interception on 2% of passes (3rd-fewest). Eagles pick off 2% (8th-fewest).

   Through the air. Commanders complete +0.5 pts more passes than expected (11th of 32). Eagles allow −2.6 pts vs expected (4th-least generous).

   McKee vs the blitz: 4.2 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most).

   McKee's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.64 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Barkley to the left: 5.5 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Commanders give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Goedert draws 26% of the Eagles targets and averages 3.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Daniels vs the blitz: 6.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Eagles blitz on 27% of dropbacks (8th-fewest).

   Daniels's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.88 seconds on average, scrambles on 11.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   White to the right: 4.3 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Eagles give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Diggs draws 22% of the Commanders targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Tanner McKee's numbers rest on 135 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Goedert leads the Eagles in receiving yards in 43% of sims.

   McKee throws for 300+ in 10%.

   Barkley runs for 100+ in 27%.

   Barkley scores a touchdown in 45%, the likeliest on his team.

   Diggs leads the Commanders in receiving yards in 42% of sims.

   Daniels throws for 300+ in 7%.

   White runs for 100+ in 17%.

   White scores a touchdown in 47%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Barkley runs for 100+ (27% of sims), they win 73%, up from 37%.

   When Eagles run for 120+ yards (31% of sims), they win 71%, up from 37%.

   When Commanders run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 89%, up from 61%.

7. Reality check

   Eagles score 18.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 19 against this defense.

   Commanders score 22 a game (last 6). In the sims: 23 against this defense.

   McKee: 222.3 pass yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 212.

   Goedert: 4.4 catches, 45.6 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 5.6, 60.

   Barkley: 48.8 rush yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 77.

   Daniels: 189.8 pass yds a game (last 4). In the sims: 204.

   Diggs: 4.8 catches, 42.8 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 4.4, 54.

   White: 29 rush yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 64.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Commanders win 61% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (WAS −6): the Commanders cover in 44%.

   Total 40.5: over in 53%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Saquon Barkley40+ rush yds
     79%of sims
     60%books imply
   • Rachaad White50+ rush yds
     59%of sims
     42%books imply
   • Saquon Barkley50+ rush + rec yds
     82%of sims
     69%books imply
   • Rachaad White50+ rush + rec yds
     76%of sims
     66%books imply
   • Dallas Goedert50+ rec yds
     56%of sims
     48%books imply