Magic vs Raptors prediction
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 118, Magic 112.
Final: ORL 121–114. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Raptors 118, Magic 112 (the Raptors won 67% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 67% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Franz Wagner Magic 25 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Wendell Carter Jr. Magic 21 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 31 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Immanuel Quickley Raptors 20 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 26 | 22 | 36 | 28 | 112 |
| TOR | 37 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 118 |
Top scorers: RJ Barrett 31, Franz Wagner 25, Wendell Carter Jr. 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Malachi Smith 17, Desmond Bane 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 38 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 13-16 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Desmond Bane | 35 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 6-18 | 0-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tristan da Silva | 33 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Black | 30 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Franz Wagner | 26 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 11-16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jevon Carter | 21 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Jase Richardson | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Cain | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Morales | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Castleton | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immanuel Quickley | 35 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8-18 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| RJ Barrett | 32 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 10-16 | 1-4 | 10-12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scottie Barnes | 30 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 26 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 25 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Malachi Smith | 39 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jamal Shead | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Allen Graves | 9 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Anderson | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Magic: Bane 33 · Carter 30 · da Silva 28 · Wagner 27 · Black 25 · Carter 20 · Cain 20 · Vucevic 17 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Raptors: Barrett 31 · Barnes 30 · Quickley 28 · Walter 28 · Smith 26 · Shead 24 · Poeltl 21 · Murray-Boyles 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Raptors take 37% of their shots from deep (5th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Magic give up 40% of shots from three (4th-fewest).
Ball security. Magic turn it over on 15% of possessions (19th of 30). Raptors force turnovers on 16% (the most).
In transition. Magic get out in transition 16th of 30 in the NBA. Raptors allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Bane leads the Magic in scoring in 33% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 19%.
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 54% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (27% of sims), they win 52%, up from 33%.
When Magic hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 50%, up from 33%.
When Raptors hit 13+ threes (29% of sims), they win 84%, up from 67%.
Reality check
Magic score 114.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.4 against this defense.
Raptors score 117.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.7 against this defense.
Bane: 16.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 4 · 4.3.
Wagner: 16.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.5 · 3.9 · 3.7.
Barrett: 21.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.8 · 5.6 · 3.1.
Barnes: 15.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.3 · 6.3 · 5.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 67% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.