Spurs vs Jazz prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 120, Jazz 111.
Final: SA 117–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 120, Jazz 111 (the Spurs won 68% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 68% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Julian Champagnie Spurs 18 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 16 pts · 2 reb · 6 ast
- Isaiah Collier Jazz 20 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Brice Sensabaugh Jazz 17 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 41 | 23 | 41 | 15 | 120 |
| UTAH | 29 | 21 | 27 | 34 | 111 |
Top scorers: Isaiah Collier 20, Julian Champagnie 18, Brice Sensabaugh 17, De'Aaron Fox 16, Kyle Filipowski 16, Keyonte George 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 31 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 24 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Stephon Castle | 23 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Julian Champagnie | 23 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Devin Vassell | 21 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Harper | 28 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 27 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 23 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 27 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 6-18 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ace Bailey | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 21 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 18 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 10 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Blake Hinson | 33 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Collier | 32 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 8-12 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 30 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 28 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 104).
Spurs are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Castle 31 · Vassell 31 · Fox 30 · Wembanyama 29 · Champagnie 27 · Harper 27 · Johnson 24 · Kornet 19 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
Jazz: Bailey 30 · Peterson 29 · Markkanen 28 · George 27 · Sensabaugh 24 · Hayes 23 · Collier 23 · Filipowski 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Spurs get out in transition 7th-most in the NBA. Jazz allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 14% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Jazz force turnovers on 14% (8th-fewest).
At the rim. Spurs finish 67% at the basket (14th of 30; 32% of their shots). Jazz allow 71% there (the highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 56% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 59%.
Champagnie hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring in 26% of sims.
Filipowski posts a double-double in 18%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 52%, up from 32%.
When Spurs hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 84%, up from 68%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (37% of sims), they win 46%, up from 32%.
Reality check
Spurs score 122.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.2 against this defense.
Jazz score 117.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.1 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 27.5 pts · 13.2 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.8 · 11.1 · 2.7.
Castle: 17.9 pts · 6.8 reb · 7.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 5.8 · 6.7.
George: 21.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.4 · 2.6 · 5.8.
Markkanen: 20.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.1 · 5.6 · 1.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 68% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (SA −13.5): the Spurs cover in 37%.
Total 233.5: over in 51%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Isaiah Collier10+ pts65%of sims46%books imply
- Isaiah Collier6+ ast70%of sims54%books imply
- Ace Bailey2+ ast72%of sims62%books imply
- Keldon Johnson5+ pts97%of sims90%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.