Browns vs Steelers prediction
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Steelers 27, Browns 17.
Final: PIT 27–6. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Steelers 27, Browns 17 (the Steelers won 74% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Steelers won 74% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Deshaun Watson Browns 157 pass yds · 1 TD
- Quinshon Judkins Browns 44 rush yds
- Harold Fannin Jr. Browns 5 rec · 58 yds
- Aaron Rodgers Steelers 221 pass yds · 1 TD
- Rico Dowdle Steelers 69 rush yds · 1 TD
- DK Metcalf Steelers 6 rec · 83 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stCLE 56-yd field goal 3–0
- 1stCLE Turnover returned for a TD 10–0
- 2ndPIT Dowdle 5-yd TD run 10–7
- 2ndPIT Turnover returned for a TD 10–14
- 2ndPIT Rodgers to Bernard, 12-yd TD 10–21
- 3rdCLE Watson to Boston, 41-yd TD 17–21
- 4thPIT 53-yd field goal 17–24
- 4thPIT 45-yd field goal 17–27
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 14/27 | 157 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 17 | 44 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| KC Concepcion | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 20 |
| Denzel Boston | 1 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 41 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9 |
| KC Concepcion | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/30 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 16 | 69 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 33 |
| Germie Bernard | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 15 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 18 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 11 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
The breakdown
The setup
Steelers use play action on 18% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest).
Who's in the sim
Browns: QB Watson · Boston 21% of targets · Concepcion 20% of targets · Fannin 20% of targets · Judkins 58% of carries
Steelers: QB Rodgers · Metcalf 25% of targets · Bernard 20% of targets · Freiermuth 14% of targets · Warren 58% of carries. Back: Dowdle (missed 3 of 7)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
On the ground. Browns average 3.8 yards a carry (5th-worst). Steelers allow 4.0 (5th-fewest).
The pass rush. Browns take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (2nd-most). Steelers get home on 7% (21st of 32), blitzing on 31% of dropbacks.
Through the air. Browns complete −1.9 pts more passes than expected (3rd-worst). Steelers allow −0.8 pts vs expected (11th-least generous).
Watson vs the blitz: 5.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Steelers blitz on 31% of dropbacks (13th of 32).
Watson's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.85 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Judkins to the right: 4.0 yards a carry there (40% of his runs), and Steelers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Concepcion draws 20% of the Browns targets and averages 3.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Rodgers vs the blitz: 4.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Browns blitz on 27% of dropbacks (7th-fewest).
Rodgers's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.69 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Warren to the left: 5.4 yards a carry there (45% of his runs), and Browns give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.
Metcalf draws 25% of the Steelers targets and averages 2.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Boston leads the Browns in receiving yards in 34% of sims.
Watson throws for 300+ in 6%.
Judkins runs for 100+ in 7%.
Judkins scores a touchdown in 34%, the likeliest on his team.
Metcalf leads the Steelers in receiving yards in 41% of sims.
Rodgers throws for 300+ in 11%.
Warren runs for 100+ in 30%.
Warren scores a touchdown in 56%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Browns run for 110+ yards (28% of sims), they win 55%, up from 25%.
When Judkins runs for 60+ (27% of sims), they win 51%, up from 25%.
When Steelers run for 170+ yards (28% of sims), they win 97%, up from 74%.
Reality check
Browns score 19 a game (last 7). In the sims: 15.6 against this defense.
Steelers score 21.9 a game (last 7). In the sims: 25.2 against this defense.
Watson: 211.7 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 194.
Boston: 2.9 catches, 53.4 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 3.3, 50.
Judkins: 52.8 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 46.
Rodgers: 249.1 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 221.
Metcalf: 4.6 catches, 53.4 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.4, 60.
Warren: 78.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 82.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Steelers win 74% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (PIT −3.5): the Steelers cover in 67%.
Total 38.5: over in 56%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.