Raiders vs Jets prediction
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · MetLife Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Jets 27, Raiders 16.
Final: LV 38–33. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Jets 27, Raiders 16 (the Jets won 50% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Jets won 50% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Kirk Cousins Raiders 151 pass yds · 1 TD
- Ashton Jeanty Raiders 35 rush yds
- Tre Tucker Raiders 4 rec · 53 yds
- Geno Smith Jets 233 pass yds · 3 TD
- Braelon Allen Jets 81 rush yds
- Garrett Wilson Jets 5 rec · 80 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stNYJ 41-yd field goal 0–3
- 1stNYJ Smith to Taylor, 11-yd TD 0–10
- 2ndLV 45-yd field goal 3–10
- 2ndLV 37-yd field goal 6–10
- 3rdNYJ 48-yd field goal 6–13
- 3rdNYJ Smith to Cooper, 25-yd TD 6–20
- 4thLV 36-yd field goal 9–20
- 4thLV Cousins to Bowers, 12-yd TD 16–20
- 4thNYJ Smith to Taylor, 1-yd TD 16–27
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/33 | 151 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 12 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 27 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 12 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 15 |
| Cody White | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 22/32 | 233 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 23 | 81 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 80 | 0 | 24 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 26 |
| Mason Taylor | 6 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 11 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 15 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
The breakdown
The setup
Raiders blitz on 26% of dropbacks (5th-fewest in the NFL).
Jets use play action on 20% of dropbacks (5th-fewest).
Who's in the sim
Raiders: QB Cousins · Bowers 24% of targets · Tucker 19% of targets · Jeanty 16% of targets · Jeanty 55% of carries. Back: Bowers (missed 2 of 7)
Jets: QB Smith · Taylor 18% of targets · Wilson 18% of targets · Mitchell 16% of targets · Allen 72% of carries. Back: Mitchell (missed 4 of 7), Cooper (missed 4 of 7), Taylor (missed 2 of 7)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. Jets complete +0.6 pts more passes than expected (11th of 32). Raiders allow +2.0 pts vs expected (4th-most generous).
The pass rush. Jets take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (the most). Raiders get home on 7% (17th of 32), blitzing on 26% of dropbacks.
On the ground. Raiders average 3.6 yards a carry (2nd-worst). Jets allow 4.2 (17th of 32).
Cousins vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Jets blitz on 34% of dropbacks (6th-most).
Cousins's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Jeanty to the left: 3.0 yards a carry there (30% of his runs), and Jets give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Bowers draws 24% of the Raiders targets and averages 2.5 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Smith vs the blitz: 6.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Raiders blitz on 26% of dropbacks (5th-fewest).
Smith's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.87 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Allen to the right: 5.1 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Raiders give up +0.5 yards a carry on that side.
Wilson draws 18% of the Jets targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Bowers leads the Raiders in receiving yards in 44% of sims.
Cousins throws for 300+ in 14%.
Jeanty runs for 100+ in 6%.
Jeanty scores a touchdown in 46%, the likeliest on his team.
Cooper leads the Jets in receiving yards in 28% of sims.
Smith throws for 300+ in 10%.
Allen runs for 100+ in 39%.
Allen scores a touchdown in 53%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Raiders run for 110+ yards (31% of sims), they win 80%, up from 48%.
When Jets run for 150+ yards (30% of sims), they win 84%, up from 50%.
When Allen runs for 120+ (26% of sims), they win 85%, up from 50%.
Reality check
Raiders score 26.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21 against this defense.
Jets score 19.6 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21.4 against this defense.
Cousins: 268.1 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 226.
Bowers: 6.8 catches, 91 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 5.4, 62.
Jeanty: 51.9 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 43.
Smith: 231.9 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 216.
Cooper: 4 catches, 82.7 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 3, 44.
Allen: 59.7 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 93.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Jets win 50% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NYJ −1.5): the Jets cover in 48%.
Total 46.5: over in 37%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.